Avoiding Life's Top 12 “Black Swans”...

The term “Black Swans” comes from Nassim Taleb (and if you haven't read his books, I recommend them highly).  He uses the term mainly in a financial context, to describe unpredictable events that can upset an investment strategy – but the same idea permeates almost anything we do that tries to predict the future (especially if using statistics).

Doug McGruff takes that idea and applies it to life in general, in particular, to surviving.  He's come up with the “top 12” ways to avoid the most common life Black Swans – the things that are most likely to kill you.  A sample:

1. Drive the biggest vehicle you can afford to drive. Your greatest risk of death comes from a motor vehicle accident. Despite all the data from the government on crash test safety, I can say unequivocally that in a 2-car accident, the person in the larger car always fairs better. Force=Mass x Acceleration. The vehicle with larger mass imparts the greater force. Also, purchase the newest large vehicle that you can afford. Crumple zones in newer cars can expand deceleration time from 30 milliseconds to 90 milliseconds which decreases deceleration forces by a factor of 3. I am not a believer in global warming or man’s contribution to it, but if you are and you want to do your part by driving a Smart Car or a Prius you should be commended for potentially standing by your convictions with your life. Also, if your midlife crisis plans include a motorcycle or sports car, realize that you might resolve your midlife crisis by avoiding old age all together. It goes without saying to wear your seatbelts, and you should be engulfed by as many air bags as possible. If we were truly rational about risk, all seat belts would be 5-point restraints and we would wear helmets while driving.

I'm doing pretty well against his list. I drive a great, bit Toyota Tundra pickup (and so does my wife).  No 5-point restraints, but...he's got me thinking about that, especially when I have to drive during rush hour...