Friday, September 30, 2011
The Next Bubble?
Quite a few smart people are predicting that student loans will be the next big asset bubble to pop and splatter us all with the detritus. Some are saying it has already started...
Narratives...
Peggy Noonan on the political narratives of the 2012 Presidential hopefuls:
Here's the problem: There is no story. At the end of the day, there is only reality. Things work or they don't. When they work, people notice, and say it.Read the whole thing. Sure is nice to have the old Peggy back...
Would the next president like a story? Here's one. America was anxious, and feared it was losing the air of opportunity that had allowed it to be what it was—expansive, generous, future-trusting. It was losing faith in its establishments and institutions. And someone came out of that need who led—who was wise and courageous and began to turn the ship around. And we saved our country, and that way saved the world.
There's a narrative for you, the only one that matters. Go be a hero of that story. It will get around. It will bubble up.
Labels:
2012 Elections,
Politics
Another One Bites the Dust...
Anwar al-Awlaki is dead, the means unspecified (not that it really matters)...
Labels:
War On Terror
Phone Outage...
Way out here in the nether regions of Lawson Valley, we had a telephone outage yesterday. We didn't find out what the cause was until Debbie stopped and talked with the repair crew. It seems that some thieves, night before last, climbed ladders up the utility poles, cut through the phone cable between several poles, and made off with the wire to sell as scrap copper. The chart at right shows the motivation: the price of copper is roughly four times what it was in 2000, though in the past few days copper prices (like those of nearly all commodities) has been plunging.
Gophers aren't bad enough? We have to have copper thieves, too??
Gophers aren't bad enough? We have to have copper thieves, too??
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Did You Know?
This was just too good to not share. I have no idea (and neither does Snopes) whether this story, allegedly written by a rancher, is true – but it is plausible. And damned funny. By email from a friend in Estonia who prefers to remain anonymous:
I had this idea that I was going to rope a deer, put it in a stall, feed it up on corn for a couple of weeks, then kill it and eat it. The first step in this adventure was getting a deer. I figured that since they congregated at my cattle feeder and do not seem to have much fear of me when we are there (a bold one will sometimes come right up and sniff at the bags of feed while I am in the back of the truck not 4 feet away) that it should not be difficult to rope one, get up to it and toss a bag over its head (to calm it down) then hog tie it and transport it home.
I filled the cattle feeder then hid down at the end with my rope. The cattle, who had seen the roping thing before, stayed well back. They were not having any of it. After about 20 minutes my deer showed up…3 of them. I picked out a likely looking one, stepped out from the end of the feeder, and threw my rope. The deer just stood there and stared at me. I wrapped the rope around my waist and twisted the end so I would have a good hold. The deer still just stood and stared at me, but you could tell it was mildly concerned about the whole rope situation. I took a step towards it. It took a step away. I put a little tension on the rope and received an education.
The first thing that I learned is that while a deer may just stand there looking at you funny while you rope it, they are spurred to action when you start pulling on that rope. That deer EXPLODED.
The second thing I learned is that pound for pound, a deer is a LOT stronger than a cow or a colt. A cow or a colt in that weight range I could fight down with a rope with some dignity. A deer, no chance. That thing ran and bucked and twisted and pulled. There was no controlling it and certainly no getting close to it. As it jerked me off my feet and started dragging me across the ground, it occurred to me that having a deer on a rope was not nearly as good an idea as I originally imagined. The only up side is that they do not have as much stamina as many animals. A brief 10 minutes later, it was tired and not nearly as quick to jerk me off my feet and drag me when I managed to get up. It took me a few minutes to realize this, since I was mostly blinded by the blood flowing out of the big gash in my head.
At that point I had lost my taste for corn fed venison. I just wanted to get that devil creature off the end of that rope. I figured if I just let it go with the rope hanging around its neck, it would likely die slow and painfully somewhere. At the time, there was no love at all between me and that deer. At that moment, I hated the thing and I would venture a guess that the feeling was mutual. Despite the gash in my head and the several large knots where I had cleverly arrested the deer's momentum by bracing my head against various large rocks as it dragged me across the ground, I could still think clearly enough to recognize that there was a small chance that I shared some tiny amount of responsibility for the situation we were in, so I didn't want the deer to have to suffer a slow death. I managed to get it lined up to back in between my truck and the feeder…a little trap I had set beforehand. Kind of like a squeeze chute. I got it to back in there and started
moving up so I could get my rope back.
Did you know that deer bite? They do! I never in a million years would have thought that a deer would bite somebody so I was very surprised when I reached up there to grab that rope and the deer grabbed hold of my wrist. Now, when a deer bites you, it is not like being bit by a horse where they just bite you and then let go. A deer bites you and shakes its head…almost like a pit bull. They bite HARD and it hurts. The proper thing to do when a deer bites you is probably to freeze and draw back slowly. I tried screaming and shaking instead. My method was ineffective. It seems like the deer was biting and shaking for several minutes, but it was likely only several seconds. I, being smarter than a deer (though you may be questioning that claim by now) tricked it. While I kept it busy tearing the bejesus out of my right arm, I reached up with my left hand and pulled that rope loose.
That was when I got my final lesson in deer behavior for the day. Deer will strike at you with their front feet. They rear right up on their back feet and strike right about head and shoulder level, and their hooves are surprisingly sharp. I learned a long time ago that when an animal like a horse strikes at you with their hooves and you can't get away easily, the best thing to do is try to make a loud noise and make an aggressive move towards the animal. This will usually cause them to back down a bit so you can escape. This was not a horse. This was a deer, so obviously such trickery would not work. In the course of a millisecond I devised a different strategy. I screamed like woman and tried to turn and run. The reason I had always been told NOT to try to turn and run from a horse that paws at you is that the re is a good chance that it will hit you in the back of the head. Deer may not be so different from horses after all, besides being twice as strong
and three times as evil, because the second I turned to run, it hit me right in the back of the head and knocked me down.
Now when a deer paws at you and knocks you down it does not immediately leave. I suspect it does not recognize that the danger has passed. What they do instead is paw your back and jump up and down on you while you are laying there crying like a little girl and covering your head. I finally managed to crawl under the truck and the deer went away.
Now for the local legend. I was pretty beat up. My scalp was split open, I had several large goose eggs, my wrist was bleeding pretty good and felt broken (it turned out to be just badly bruised) and my back was bleeding in a few places, though my insulated canvas jacket had protected me from most of the worst of it. I drove to the nearest place, which was the co-op. I got out of the truck, covered in blood and dust and looking like hell. The guy who ran the place saw me through the window and came running out yelling "what happened"
I have never seen any law in the state of Kansas that would prohibit an individual from roping a deer. I suspect that this is an area that they have overlooked entirely. Knowing, as I do, the lengths to which law enforcement personnel will go to exercise their power, I was concerned that they may find a way to twist the existing laws to paint my actions as criminal. I swear….not wanting to admit that I had done something monumentally stupid played no part in my response. I told him "I was attacked by a deer.” I did not mention that at the time I had a rope on it. The evidence was all over my body. Deer prints on the back of my jacket where it had stomped all over me and a large deer print on my face where it had struck me there.
I asked him to call somebody to come get me…I didn't think I could make it home on my own. He did.
Later that afternoon, a game warden showed up at my house and wanted to know about the deer attack. Surprisingly, deer attacks are a rare thing and wildlife and parks was interested in the event. I tried to describe the attack as completely and accurately as I could…I was filling the grain hopper and this deer came out of nowhere and just started kicking the hell out of me and BIT me. It was obviously rabid or insane or something. EVERYBODY for miles around knows about the deer attack (the guy at the co-op has a big mouth). For several weeks people dragged their kids in the house when they saw deer around and the local ranchers carried rifles when they filled their feeders. I have told several people the story, but NEVER anybody around here. I have to see these people every day and as an outsider…a "city folk"…I have enough trouble fitting in without them snickering behind my back and whispering "there is the dumb-ass that tried to rope the deer.
Taking Cain Seriously...
Unlike Rick Perry, Herman Cain I know a bit about. I've been reading about him ever since his (failed) run for the GOP Senate candidacy in 2004. I had a personal interest in one of the other candidates (a Democrat with whom I'd had some truly awful business dealings), but Cain turned out to be the more interesting candidate in that race, his loss notwithstanding.
The main thing I see in Cain that I like is not directly political at all. It's this: he appears to be a normal human being, self-made, and competent as hell. There are darned few other players on the national political stage about whom I could comfortably make that statement.
But until this week, the punditosphere hasn't seemed to take Herman Cain seriously at all. He was rather cavalierly dismissed as “unelectable” and third-tier. With what I know today, given a choice between voting for Cain and voting for any conceivable Democratic opponent (i.e., Obama or Clinton), Cain gets my vote in a walk. You might think that's not much of a statement, as you might think that any conceivable Republican candidate should win that contest. However, for most of the matchups I can imagine (say, Obama v. Romney), my inclination is to decline to vote – as it's largely a waste of my time. Cain would get my vote (again, with what I know right now)...
But the punditosphere may be recalibrating Mr. Cain...
The main thing I see in Cain that I like is not directly political at all. It's this: he appears to be a normal human being, self-made, and competent as hell. There are darned few other players on the national political stage about whom I could comfortably make that statement.
But until this week, the punditosphere hasn't seemed to take Herman Cain seriously at all. He was rather cavalierly dismissed as “unelectable” and third-tier. With what I know today, given a choice between voting for Cain and voting for any conceivable Democratic opponent (i.e., Obama or Clinton), Cain gets my vote in a walk. You might think that's not much of a statement, as you might think that any conceivable Republican candidate should win that contest. However, for most of the matchups I can imagine (say, Obama v. Romney), my inclination is to decline to vote – as it's largely a waste of my time. Cain would get my vote (again, with what I know right now)...
But the punditosphere may be recalibrating Mr. Cain...
Labels:
2012 Elections,
Cain,
Obama
Better Definition of an Ampere...
A breakthrough involving graphene may lead us (finally!) to a definition of the ampere directly derived from the electron charge...
Labels:
Electronics,
Science
Intimidated Republicans...
Via reader Simon M.:
Somewhere there's a newspaper headline editor who either (1) badly needs a refresh of his idiomatic English, or (2) has an excellent sense of humor!
Somewhere there's a newspaper headline editor who either (1) badly needs a refresh of his idiomatic English, or (2) has an excellent sense of humor!
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
Giant Solar Flare...
NASA is tracking a large sunspot group, named Active Region 1302 (or AR1302). One of its satellites captured this image of AR1302 emitting a gigantic flare. The photo inset of the Earth is there to give you an idea just how big that flare is. Via APOD, of course...
They Ate What?
Via reader Doug S., these stories of things that pets ate. The grand prize winner's photo is at right: a dog taken to the vet for lameness in a hind leg, but X-rays showed nine handballs where they shouldn't oughtta be...
Monday, September 26, 2011
The Blues in Jamul...
Kate, my nonagenarian mother-in-law, has been visiting with us for the last three weeks. Yesterday we put her on the plane for her trip home. Despite being very frail and unable to walk more than a hundred feet or so in a push, and living in fear of just about everything (as a butterfly landing on her would probably cause a bruise), she was willing to leave the safety and familiarity of her home in Indiana to come spend some time with us (and our four dogs and eight cats).
The dogs were good; they didn't jump on her and knock her down. Even the cats seemed very careful around her. And she had a good time with us, especially some shared sight-seeing drives and meals out (something she doesn't get to do much of back home).
As Debbie says, it's a mixture of both sadness and relief to see her go. Sadness, because we know we won't see her again soon (and at her age, we have to wonder if ever), and because we enjoyed her company. Relief, because it is inevitably a lot of work to weave care and attention to her into our lives, and her stay disrupts the usual peace and calmness in our country home. So yesterday after we put her on the plane Debbie and I had a bit o' the blues...
I'm feeling better this morning, though!
The dogs were good; they didn't jump on her and knock her down. Even the cats seemed very careful around her. And she had a good time with us, especially some shared sight-seeing drives and meals out (something she doesn't get to do much of back home).
As Debbie says, it's a mixture of both sadness and relief to see her go. Sadness, because we know we won't see her again soon (and at her age, we have to wonder if ever), and because we enjoyed her company. Relief, because it is inevitably a lot of work to weave care and attention to her into our lives, and her stay disrupts the usual peace and calmness in our country home. So yesterday after we put her on the plane Debbie and I had a bit o' the blues...
I'm feeling better this morning, though!
Cats and Dogs...
Via my mom:
Excerpt from a dog's diary...
8:00 am - Dog food! My favourite thing! 9:30 am - A car ride! My favourite thing! 9:40 am - A walk in the park! My favourite thing! 10:30 am - Got rubbed and petted! My favourite thing! 12:00 pm - Lunch! My favourite thing! 1:00 pm - Played in the yard! My favourite thing! 3:00 pm - Wagged my tail! My favourite thing! 5:00 pm - Milk Bones! My favourite thing! 7:00 pm - Got to play ball! My favourite thing! 8:00 pm - Wow! Watched TV with the people! My favourite thing! 11:00 pm - Sleeping on the bed! My favourite thing!
Excerpt from a cat's diary...
Day 983 of my captivity... My captors continue to taunt me with bizarre little dangling objects. They dine lavishly on fresh meat, while the other inmates and I are fed hash or some sort of dry nuggets. Although I make my contempt for the rations perfectly clear, I nevertheless must eat something in order to keep up my strength. The only thing that keeps me going is my dream of escape. In an attempt to disgust them, I once again vomit on the carpet. Today I decapitated a mouse and dropped its headless body at their feet. I had hoped this would strike fear into their hearts, since it clearly demonstrates what I am capable of. However, they merely made condescending comments about what a 'good little hunter' I am. Bastards. There was some sort of assembly of their accomplices tonight. I was placed in solitary confinement for the duration of the event. However, I could hear the noises and smell the food. I overheard that my confinement was due to the power of 'allergies.' I must learn what this means and how to use it to my advantage. Today I was almost successful in an attempt to assassinate one of my tormentors by weaving around his feet as he was walking. I must try this again tomorrow – but at the top of the stairs. I am convinced that the other prisoners here are flunkies and snitches. The dog receives special privileges. He is regularly released - and seems to be more than willing to return. He is obviously retarded. The bird has got to be an informant. I observe him communicating with the guards regularly. I am certain that he reports my every move. My captors have arranged protective custody for him in an elevated cell, so he is safe. For now.
Friday, September 23, 2011
Writing Unmaintainable Code...
A treatise on how to write programs that are very difficult to maintain. As any experienced programmer will recognize, the techniques are commonly found in code that wasn't (presumably) intentionally written to be unmaintainable. Even though it might as well have been. An example:
Creative Miss-spellingBut do go read the whole thing...
If you must use descriptive variable and function names, misspell them. By misspelling in some function and variable names, and spelling it correctly in others (such as SetPintleOpening SetPintalClosing) we effectively negate the use of grep or IDE search techniques. It works amazingly well. Add an international flavor by spelling tory or tori in different theatres/theaters.
Labels:
Humor,
Programming,
Software
A USB Typewriter?
This may be an elaborate hoax, but it sure looks real. The tagline looks like a joke, though:
I'm pretty much speechless...
The USBTypewriter™ is a new and groundbreaking innovation in the field of obsolescence.The claim is that this fellow has developed a circuit board that can be attached to any old-fashioned mechanical typewriter, converting it to a USB keyboard input device. From a technical perspective, this is completely plausible. From just about any other perspective, it's some degree of crazy (and leaning toward very crazy). Here's the company page, the Etsy storefront, and below is their marketing video.
I'm pretty much speechless...
Labels:
Technology,
Weird
Faster Than Light?
More than likely you heard the news yesterday: scientists at CERN have made the results of an experiment public – and those results seem to indicate that a beam of neutrinos traveled between two locations at a speed greater than the speed of light.
If verified, this is a remarkable result that turns much of modern physics on its head. It's as if someone discovered that one plus one doesn't always equal two.
Probably in the end it will turn out there was some flaw in the experiment – but maybe not. After all, it's a fine group of scientists who performed the experiment repeatedly, and got the same very unexpected results every time. More here, here, and here...
If verified, this is a remarkable result that turns much of modern physics on its head. It's as if someone discovered that one plus one doesn't always equal two.
Probably in the end it will turn out there was some flaw in the experiment – but maybe not. After all, it's a fine group of scientists who performed the experiment repeatedly, and got the same very unexpected results every time. More here, here, and here...
Thursday, September 22, 2011
Email from My Mother...
I received the following email from my mother this morning:
To save the economy, on September 27, 2011, the government will start deporting old people (instead of illegals) in order to Lower Social Security and Medicare costs.Does your mother call you an “old buzzard”?
Old people are easier to catch and will not remember how to get back home.
I started crying when I thought of you.
RUN, YOU OLD BUZZARD, RUN!
Trello Upate...
I posted very briefly about Trello last week. I've been using it ever since to keep track of my personal “to do” list, and so far it's proved to be the single most usable such implementation I've run across. For a developer, the checklist feature is absolutely perfect – I can plan out all the little steps involved for a new feature I'm adding, and then run through them. I can add or delete or reorder these steps as I go. I can attach screenshots and documents willy-nilly. I have yet to run into something that I want to do, but cannot.
Nice job, Fog Creek!
Nice job, Fog Creek!
Richard Feynman...
Long-time readers will already know that Dr. Feynman is one of my personal heroes. I recently ran across something I'd read years ago – his appendix to the Rogers Commission report on the Challenger disaster, containing personal observations. It's a masterpiece in its entirety, but I'd completely forgotten the last sentence:
For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled.The man had a real talent for cutting through the clutter and crap that more ordinary thinkers get distracted by. Awesome...
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Benford's Law and the Greek Debt Crisis...
We could have had early warning of the Greek debt crisis...
Labels:
Greece,
Math,
Statistics
Clever Analysis...
I've read about this famous little bit of WWII analysis before, and then read a bit more about Dr. Wald on the web. It's an interesting story...
Shakespeare...
I'm not sure where this originated, but it's a great presentation of a bunch of English expressions still in common use that actually originated with the bard: Shakespeare. It's rather stunning just how much influence a single writer had. Click to enlarge, and enjoy!
Labels:
English
A Quintet of Moons...
Cassini is still hard at work in the Saturnian system, returning scads of good science data every day. The photo at right (click to enlarge, as always) was taken recently, and shows five moons of Saturn all in one shot. From left to right: Janus, Pandora, Enceladus, Mimas, and half of Rhea. Awesome!
Geek Humor...
Math joke:
“An infinite number of mathematicians walk into a bar. The first one tells the bartender he wants a beer. The second one says he wants half a beer. The third one says he wants a fourth of a beer. The bartender puts two beers on the bar and says “You guys need to learn your limits.”Posted by Les Jones. More jokes in the comments...
Sunday, September 18, 2011
OMG!
A whole new meaning for OMG!
Via my mom, both the photo at right and the story below...
Via my mom, both the photo at right and the story below...
I was eating lunch on the 20th of February with my 7 year-old granddaughter and I asked her, "What day is tomorrow?"
She said, ‘It's President's Day!’ (She is a smart kid.)
I asked, ‘What does President's Day mean?’ I was waiting for something about Washington or Lincoln ... etc.
She replied, ‘President's Day is when President Obama steps out of the White House and if he sees his shadow we have one more year of unemployment.’
You know, it hurts when hot coffee spurts out your nose...
The Sun...
In recent years, the quality of the solar images scientists can capture has gone up dramatically. The one at right shows the edge of a sunspot. Often these amazing images have been taken from satellites, but the one at right was taken from a ground-based telescope, using several sophisticated adaptive optical systems and some digital post-processing.
Via APOD, of course...
Via APOD, of course...
Saturday, September 17, 2011
The Sad Farmer...
Via my mom:
A farmer was selling his peaches door to door. He knocked on a door and a shapely 30-something woman dressed in a very sheer negligee answered the door. He raised his basket to show her the peaches, then asked, "Would you like to buy some peaches?"
She pulled the top of the negligee to one side and asked, "Are they as firm as this"?
He nodded his head and said, "Yes ma'am," and a little tear ran from his eye.
Then she pulled the other side of her negligee off asking, "Are they nice and pink like this?"
The farmer said, "Yes," and a tear came from the other eye.
Then she unbuttoned the bottom of her negligee and asked, "Are they as fuzzy as this?"
He again said, "Yes," and broke down crying.
She asked, "Why on earth are you crying?"
Drying his eyes he replied, "The drought got my corn, the flood got my soy beans, a tornado leveled my barn, I voted for Obama and now I think I'm gonna get screwed out of my peaches.
The Job Opening...
Via reader Simon M., who saw this on Facebook:
I don't have good answers for all this. I'm certainly not advocating the elimination of all jobless benefits – there are definitely people out there who can't find a job at all, and without the benefits they won't be able to purchase even the basic necessities of life. I am saying something else, though: that the nature of our unemployment safety net deserves close study and (probably) some kind of adjustment. On the evidence at hand, taxpayers are financing the voluntary unemployment of an interesting fraction of the unemployed, and that just ain't right...
A guy walked into the local welfare office to pick up his check.How does one measure the seriousness of an unemployed person's commitment to finding a job? In particular, one question that begs to be answered: to what extent does the amount and duration of unemployment benefits affect the willingness of unemployed people to seek and take a new job? These questions are very challenging to answer, as there are so many variables involved. Nevertheless, the evidence seems to suggest that the more unemployment benefits pay, and the longer they're paid, the longer unemployed people are willing to remain unemployed. The timing of job acceptance in the first link above is particularly telling to me.
He marched straight up to the counter and said, "Hi.. You know... I just hate drawing welfare. I'd really rather have a job."
The social worker behind the counter said, "Your timing is excellent. We just got a job opening from a very wealthy old man who wants a Chauffeur and bodyguard for his beautiful daughter. You'll have to drive around in his 2011 Mercedes-Benz CL, and he will supply all of your clothes.
"Because of the long hours, meals will be provided. You'll also be expected to escort the daughter on her overseas holiday trips. This is rather awkward to say but you will also have as part of your job assignment to satisfy her sexual urges as the daughter is in her mid-20's and has a rather strong sex drive."
The guy, just plain wide-eyed, said, "You're bullshittin' me!"
The social worker said, "Yeah, well... You started it."
I don't have good answers for all this. I'm certainly not advocating the elimination of all jobless benefits – there are definitely people out there who can't find a job at all, and without the benefits they won't be able to purchase even the basic necessities of life. I am saying something else, though: that the nature of our unemployment safety net deserves close study and (probably) some kind of adjustment. On the evidence at hand, taxpayers are financing the voluntary unemployment of an interesting fraction of the unemployed, and that just ain't right...
Labels:
Humor,
Unemployment
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design...
Via reader Eric J., who points out that some of them are applicable to software design as well. I'll add that many of them are applicable to any kind of engineering – certainly any kind of engineering I've been involved with (electrical, software, optical, mechanical, thermal, and civil)...
Original source is Dr. David Akin of the University of Maryland.
- Engineering is done with numbers. Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.
- To design a spacecraft right takes an infinite amount of effort. This is why it's a good idea to design them to operate when some things are wrong.
- Design is an iterative process. The necessary number of iterations is one more than the number you have currently done. This is true at any point in time.
- Your best design efforts will inevitably wind up being useless in the final design. Learn to live with the disappointment.
- (Miller's Law) Three points determine a curve.
- (Mar's Law) Everything is linear if plotted log-log with a fat magic marker.
- At the start of any design effort, the person who most wants to be team leader is least likely to be capable of it.
- In nature, the optimum is almost always in the middle somewhere. Distrust assertions that the optimum is at an extreme point.
- Not having all the information you need is never a satisfactory excuse for not starting the analysis.
- When in doubt, estimate. In an emergency, guess. But be sure to go back and clean up the mess when the real numbers come along.
- Sometimes, the fastest way to get to the end is to throw everything out and start over.
- There is never a single right solution. There are always multiple wrong ones, though.
- Design is based on requirements. There's no justification for designing something one bit "better" than the requirements dictate.
- (Edison's Law) "Better" is the enemy of "good".
- (Shea's Law) The ability to improve a design occurs primarily at the interfaces. This is also the prime location for screwing it up.
- The previous people who did a similar analysis did not have a direct pipeline to the wisdom of the ages. There is therefore no reason to believe their analysis over yours. There is especially no reason to present their analysis as yours.
- The fact that an analysis appears in print has no relationship to the likelihood of its being correct.
- Past experience is excellent for providing a reality check. Too much reality can doom an otherwise worthwhile design, though.
- The odds are greatly against you being immensely smarter than everyone else in the field. If your analysis says your terminal velocity is twice the speed of light, you may have invented warp drive, but the chances are a lot better that you've screwed up.
- A bad design with a good presentation is doomed eventually. A good design with a bad presentation is doomed immediately.
- (Larrabee's Law) Half of everything you hear in a classroom is crap. Education is figuring out which half is which.
- When in doubt, document. (Documentation requirements will reach a maximum shortly after the termination of a program.)
- The schedule you develop will seem like a complete work of fiction up until the time your customer fires you for not meeting it.
- It's called a "Work Breakdown Structure" because the Work remaining will grow until you have a Breakdown, unless you enforce some Structure on it.
- (Bowden's Law) Following a testing failure, it's always possible to refine the analysis to show that you really had negative margins all along.
- (Montemerlo's Law) Don't do nuthin' dumb.
- (Varsi's Law) Schedules only move in one direction.
- (Ranger's Law) There ain't no such thing as a free launch.
- (von Tiesenhausen's Law of Program Management) To get an accurate estimate of final program requirements, multiply the initial time estimates by pi, and slide the decimal point on the cost estimates one place to the right.
- (von Tiesenhausen's Law of Engineering Design) If you want to have a maximum effect on the design of a new engineering system, learn to draw. Engineers always wind up designing the vehicle to look like the initial artist's concept.
- (Mo's Law of Evolutionary Development) You can't get to the moon by climbing successively taller trees.
- (Atkin's Law of Demonstrations) When the hardware is working perfectly, the really important visitors don't show up.
- Space is a completely unforgiving environment. If you screw up the engineering, somebody dies (and there's no partial credit because most of the analysis was right...)
Labels:
Engineering,
Management
Friday, September 16, 2011
World's Funniest Analogies...
Via Bill Gross. Hysterical! A few samples:
His thoughts tumbled in his head, making and breaking alliances like underpants in a dryer without Cling Free.
She had a deep, throaty, genuine laugh, like that sound a dog makes just before it throws up.
Her vocabulary was as bad as, like, whatever.
Labels:
Humor
Advanced Strategies...
Reader Jim M. shares this observation:
The tribal wisdom of the Dakota Sioux Indian tribe, passed on from generation to generation, says that, "When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount."
However, in government, education, and in corporate America, more advanced strategies are often employed, such as:
1. Buying a stronger whip.
2. Changing riders.
3. Appointing a committee to study the horse.
4. Arranging to visit other countries to see how other cultures ride dead horses.
5. Lowering the standards so that dead horses can be included.
6. Reclassifying the dead horse as living-impaired.
7. Hiring outside contractors to ride the dead horse.
8. Harnessing several dead horses together to increase speed.
9. Providing additional funding and/or training to increase dead horse's performance.
10. Doing a productivity study to see if lighter riders would improve the dead horse's performance.
11. Declaring that as the dead horse does not have to be fed, it is less costly, carries lower overhead and therefore contributes substantially more to the bottom line of the economy than do some other horses.
12. Rewriting the expected performance requirements for all horses. And of course....
13. Promoting the dead horse to a supervisory position.
Marine, Taking Care of Business...
Via reader Simon M., who got it from his wife Carrie:
A college Professor stood on a chair and said “If God really exists then knock me off this chair.” Nothing happened, the class was quiet, so he said “See! now I'll give it a couple more minutes.” A Marine Vet stood up, punched him in the face knocking him out and off the chair, then sat back down. As the Professor came to he looked at his student and said “Why did you do that?” He said “God was busy protecting my buddies still fighting for your right to say and do stupid stuff like this so he sent me!”
Obama on a State Visit...
Via my mom:
Obama goes on a State visit to Israel. While he is on a tour of Jerusalem, he has a fatal heart attack. The undertaker tells the US diplomats: "You can have him shipped home for $1 million or you can bury him here in the Holy Land for $100." The US diplomats go into a huddle and come back to the undertaker and tell him they still want Obama flown home. The undertaker is puzzled and asks: "Why would you spend $1 million to get him home when it would be wonderful to be buried here in this religious country and you would only spend $100?" One diplomat replied: "More than 2000 years ago a man died here, was buried here, and just 3 days later he rose from the dead. We simply can't take that risk".
Labels:
Geopolitics,
Humor,
Obama
Thursday, September 15, 2011
Another APS Resignation...
Another mainstream scientist – this time a Nobel-winning physicist – has resigned from the American Physical Society because of it's anti-science stance on anthropogenic global warming...
Labels:
Anthropogenic Global Warming
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
Will They Get the Message?
The Republicans did the unthinkable last night – they won Weiner's seat in a special election. In a solidly Democratic district, with a solidly Democratic candidate, the Republican won. There's a message here: the people, even the loyal Democratic voters, are not happy with the current administration. If the Democratic leadership doesn't hear this message loud and clear, next year's elections are likely to be an absolute rout.
Will they hear it? The safe bet would be “no”, as they haven't heard any of the preceding messages at all...
Will they hear it? The safe bet would be “no”, as they haven't heard any of the preceding messages at all...
Labels:
Politics
New York on 9/11 + 10 Years...
During my recent business trip to New York, I stayed on the 43rd floor of a hotel directly overlooking the old World Trade Center site. In the first photo below, you can see the two squares of the 9/11 monument; in the second, the new Freedom Tower rising just alongside them. As usual, click to enlarge. Quite a sight...
The Lost Art of Nomography...
Nomography is a word you don't hear much any more, though when I was a kid nomographs were quite common in the electrical engineering world (and in other engineering and science specialties as well). They're closely related to slide rules, which long-time readers will know are a special interest of mine. Here's an interesting paper on the Lost Art of Nomography (PDF)...
Labels:
Nomography,
Slide Rule
Sunday, September 11, 2011
Remembering 9/11...
This morning I find it hard to concentrate on anything other than remembering that awful day 10 years ago. Wandering around the intertubes, I ran into some related things that struck me for one reason or another. First, George W. Bush's speech yesterday dedicating the Flight 93 memorial in Shanksville, Pennsylvania:
Don Surber looks forward, saying “We shall fear no evil.”
Neo-neocon declares the 9/11 memorial in New York a “Fitting tribute.”
A pilot who was ready to give her life on 9/11.
And finally, Mark Steyn in his inimitable fashion skewers the multi-culti, touchy-feely, pansy wing's response to 9/11. As usual with him, I feel the need to laugh and cry at the same time...
Don Surber looks forward, saying “We shall fear no evil.”
Neo-neocon declares the 9/11 memorial in New York a “Fitting tribute.”
A pilot who was ready to give her life on 9/11.
And finally, Mark Steyn in his inimitable fashion skewers the multi-culti, touchy-feely, pansy wing's response to 9/11. As usual with him, I feel the need to laugh and cry at the same time...
Friday, September 9, 2011
Thursday, September 8, 2011
Beautiful Poem...
Via my mom (who's on a roll):
I hope this poem has the same effect on you as it did on me - then my forwarding it will be worth the effort. Walk with me by the water - worth the read...A BEAUTIFUL POEM ABOUT GROWING OLDER:Shit...
I forgot the words...
See A Difference?
Here's a nice illustration of one of the many things I miss about George W. Bush ... especially when comparing him to Barack Obama.
Here's Bush's speech after the capture of Sadadam Hussein:
Via my mom...
Here's Bush's speech after the capture of Sadadam Hussein:
"The success of yesterday's mission is a tribute to our men and women now serving in Iraq. The operation was based on the superb work of intelligence analysts who found the dictator's footprints in a vast country. The operation was carried out with skill and precision by a brave fighting force. Our servicemen and women and our coalition allies have faced many dangers in the hunt for members of the fallen regime, and in their effort to bring hope and freedom to the Iraqi people. Their work continues, and so do the risks. Today, on behalf of the nation, I thank the members of our Armed Forces and I congratulate them!"And Obama's speech after the killing of Osama Bin Laden:
"And so shortly after taking office, I directed Leon Panetta, the Director of the CIA, to make the killing or capture of bin Laden the top priority of our war against al Qaeda, even as we continued our broader efforts to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat his network. Then, last August, I was briefed on a possible lead to bin Laden. It was far from certain, and it took many months to run this thread to ground. I met repeatedly with my national security team as we developed more information about the possibility that we had located bin Laden hiding within a compound deep inside of Pakistan. And finally, last week, I determined that we had enough intelligence to take action, and I authorized an operation to get Osama bin Laden and bring him to justice. Today, at my direction, the United States launched a targeted operation against that compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan."Now you could call those differences a matter of style. Myself, I'd call those differences an illustration of character...
Via my mom...
Another Medal for Obama?
Via my mom:
American Lindsey Vonn has had to forfeit her Gold Medal on Thursday, September 1, 2011.
The International Olympic Committee announced today that it has taken back the gold medal previously awarded to American skier Lindsey Vonn and given it to U.S. President Barack Obama.
Olympic officials said Obama deserved the medal more than Vonn becauseno one has ever gone downhill faster than he has.
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
Rain!
Well, a little rain, anyway. Not enough to register in my rain gauge, but enough to wet down the chapparal and to make it smell good outside. I got wet while walking the dogs this morning!
Labels:
Dogs,
Home,
Morning Walk
Monday, September 5, 2011
Göbekli Tepe...
If you're not familiar with Göbekli Tepe, you're going to be surprised: it's one of the most remarkable archaeological discoveries ever made, and probably the oldest artifacts of an advanced civilization so far discovered. Here's an introductory video on it, and there's much more information at the link above...
Labels:
Archaeology
Sunday, September 4, 2011
Clever Engineering on 3D TV...
Toshiba is showing a new large-format 3D television receiver that doesn't require viewers to wear any special glasses. The technology involved is quite understandable (though complex) – it actually transmits different images to viewers' left and right eyes to create the stereoscopic visual effects. To do this, the TV has to know where the viewers are located – and it does this by using a camera to watch all the faces watching it. Awesome!
Personally I'm more interested in such a display as a computer screen than I am as a television. I can think of all sorts of uses for 3D displays for computer users...
Personally I'm more interested in such a display as a computer screen than I am as a television. I can think of all sorts of uses for 3D displays for computer users...
Labels:
3D,
Technology
Opportunity at Endeavour Crater...
The Mars rover Opportunity is already hard at work in the Endeavour Crater, which it only recently reached after years of travel. It's already finding things never before seen on Mars, like the rock at right:
This is a clue ... that we may be dealing with a hydrothermal system here," Squyres said. "We may be dealing with a situation where water has percolated or flowed or somehow moved through these rocks -- maybe as vapor or maybe as liquid. We don't know yet.Go, Opportunity, go!
Labels:
Mars,
Opportunity
Backlit Saturn...
I love this Cassini photo. I'll spare y'all my rant about robotic explorers vs. manned space flight. Just enjoy this!
Via APOD, of course. And click to enlarge.
Via APOD, of course. And click to enlarge.
Labels:
APOD,
Cassini,
Photography
Tweet Compression...
For the compression geeks. Amusing, more than anything...
Labels:
Compression,
Geek
Clever Widget...
The folks at Google have come up with another clever toy. This one lets you draw an arbitrary distribution curve (over time), then finds Google queries whose frequency closely matches the curve you draw. I tried drawing about ten quite arbitrary (and in some cases, challenging!) curves – and every time this tool found a query whose results quite closely matched it. Impressive...
Only $99!
Via my colleague Aleck L. This cartoon very nicely illustrates the general mindset of the three major operating systems' users.
In the case of Linux, most laptop/desktop users are hard-core “hackers”, familiar with things like UNIX commands and vi. They tend to think of Linux as a vehicle for using all kinds of free open source software goodies.
Windows users, on the other hand, are sick and tired of the endless updates required just to keep their systems from being hopelessly compromised by Chinese or North Korean hackers. The vast majority of these updates bring nothing new with them, so there's no reward (unless you count not being hacked) for the time and effort (and not insubstantial risk) in installing them.
Mac users get relatively few updates, and when they do get them, they generally come with all kinds of new and interesting functionality. They're generally quite happy to fork over some coin to get the new stuff (Mac upgrade rates are astonishingly high).
The cartoon says all of that in a couple square inches...
In the case of Linux, most laptop/desktop users are hard-core “hackers”, familiar with things like UNIX commands and vi. They tend to think of Linux as a vehicle for using all kinds of free open source software goodies.
Windows users, on the other hand, are sick and tired of the endless updates required just to keep their systems from being hopelessly compromised by Chinese or North Korean hackers. The vast majority of these updates bring nothing new with them, so there's no reward (unless you count not being hacked) for the time and effort (and not insubstantial risk) in installing them.
Mac users get relatively few updates, and when they do get them, they generally come with all kinds of new and interesting functionality. They're generally quite happy to fork over some coin to get the new stuff (Mac upgrade rates are astonishingly high).
The cartoon says all of that in a couple square inches...
The Flake...
Here's a compilation of OBlunders, most of them things I'm sure you've seen before. The point of this is to demonstrate the remarkable degree to which the lamestream media is carrying water for Obama. Remember how the lamestreamers jumped all over every last verbal misstep of George W. Bush, Dan Quayle, and Ronald Reagan? Not much evidence of that here – even though the current President has arguably produced more (and better!) targets for media mocking than any of his predecessors...
Labels:
Lamestream Media,
Obama
Hairy Mushroom?
My sister lives in central Virginia. Recently she spotted this bizarre-looking hairy mushroom in her yard. Any idea what the heck it is?
If you have a clue, please leave a comment or send me an email...
If you have a clue, please leave a comment or send me an email...
Senior Citizen Humor...
Via my mom:
My Last Trip to COSTCO:
Yesterday I was at my local COSTCO buying a large bag of Purina dog chow for my loyal pet, Jake, the Wonder Dog and was in the check-out line when a woman behind me asked if I had a dog.
What did she think I had an elephant? So sinceI'm retired and have little to do, on impulse I told her that no, I didn't have a dog, I was starting the Purina Diet again. I added that I probably shouldn't, because I ended up in the hospital last time, but that I'd lost 50 pounds before I awakened in an intensive care ward with tubes coming out of most of my orifices and IVs in both arms.
I told her that it was essentially a Perfect Diet and that the way that it works is, to load your pants pockets with Purina Nuggets and simply eat one or two every time you feel hungry. The food is nutritionally complete so it works well and I was going to try it again. (I have to mention here that practically everyone in line was now enthralled with my story.)
Horrified, she asked if I ended up in intensive care, because the dog food poisoned me. I told her no, I stepped off a curb to sniff a poodle's ass and a car hit me.
I thought the guy behind her was going to have a heart attack he was laughing so hard.
Costco won't let me shop there anymore.
Better watch what you ask retired people. They have all the time in the World to think of crazy things to say. Send a link to this (especially) to all your
retired friends ... it will be their laugh for the day!!!
Friday, September 2, 2011
Oh, My...
This is what Rush Limbaugh is talking about when he rails about “environmentalist wackos”.
There certainly are many people who are both concerned about the environment and are simultaneously more familiar with the issues and the underlying science. I like to think of myself as one of them. But we're not in the majority...
There certainly are many people who are both concerned about the environment and are simultaneously more familiar with the issues and the underlying science. I like to think of myself as one of them. But we're not in the majority...
Labels:
Environmentalist Wackos
TileMill...
Here's a new open source map editing program. I haven't used it myself (yet!), but it sure looks interesting...
Labels:
Open Source,
Software
Software State Machines...
I've long been a fan of state machines implemented in software. Most of my colleagues roll their eyes when I display my enthusiasm for them. I've generally considered this to be symptomatic of my slightly odd background in digital hardware design, where state machines are the norm. Most software developers know state machines only from school, if at all. I use them fairly often, even for very small and simple problems. Generally I roll my own state machine from scratch, though for more complex state machines I've used libraries like this one.
Alan Skorkin has some ideas about why state machines are infrequently used. And why they're fluffy bunnies...
Alan Skorkin has some ideas about why state machines are infrequently used. And why they're fluffy bunnies...
Thursday, September 1, 2011
Randomness via Metastability...
Ordinarily metastability is something digital hardware designers go out of their way to avoid. Intel has come up with a way to harness metastability for, of all things, generating random numbers. If you're a digital geek, then you already know that generating high quality (in the cryptographic sense) random numbers is surprisingly difficult. Intel's system, to my knowledge, hasn't yet been vetted by the cryptographic professionals – but knowing what its basis is, the notion looks pretty solid to me.
High quality random numbers in every CPU. Cool...
High quality random numbers in every CPU. Cool...
Labels:
Hardware,
Random,
Technology
A Pleasant Fantasy...
Tony Blankley has some lovely ideas about what President Obama could say in his upcoming jobs speech:
Read the whole thing...
He could decide to embrace all the major Republican, Tea Party, free market ideas: marginal business and personal tax rate cuts (leading to a net tax cut); big discretionary spending cuts to be implemented before the 2012 election; genuine long term reductions in Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security costs written into law now; major deregulation -- including the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Dodd-Frank financial burdens and nanny-state consumer regulations; unlimited oil- and gas-drilling, and shale-fracking authorization; permanent extension of the Bush tax cuts, repeal of the double tax on American corporations' foreign profits, limits on unemployment insurance extensions; and withdrawal of his big union initiatives, such as the National Labor Relations Board's opposition to Boeing Co. building a factory in South Carolina.Of course, none of this is likely to happen. Dang it.
Read the whole thing...
Catch 22...
Courtesy of your government, of course. The latest: a trucking company can't refuse to hire a driver with a history of alcohol abuse – but if that driver causes an accident, the company is still liable.
At times like this, it surely seems that the socialists in charge of our country's government are trying to destroy us...
At times like this, it surely seems that the socialists in charge of our country's government are trying to destroy us...
Labels:
Business,
Government,
Horror
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