A Beautiful Sight...

The cameras on Lyons Peak show no burning places at all, in any direction, for the first time since last Saturday night.

What a beautiful sight!

Harris Fire Update...

The news is all good this evening as our sun sets. The top photo is a capture of the north-facing camera on top of Lyons Peak. You can see smoke in the air, to be sure – but not a plume or a burn anywhere in sight. Very comforting for this inhabitant of Lawson Valley!

The air seems to be a bit clearer tonight, both here in Chula Vista and out in Lawson Valley. A few minutes ago I was out walking our dogs, and a flight of four (I think) Sea Stallion helicopters – huge, heavy-lifting military helicopters – flew by a mile or so away, clearly visible through the smoky haze. It looked like they were returning to the Coronado Naval Air Station from the direction of the Harris Fire. The sight of them was immensely cheering…

The view to the east is in the second photo down. The big flareup evident earlier in the day is completely gone. The air is much clearer in that direction than it was just a couple of hours ago. The smaller flareup right near Lyons Peak is also gone. Deerhorn Valley (the lower right quadrant of this photo) is completely free of plumes. A lovely sight, that is.

A couple of hours ago I called 211 to find out if Lawson Valley was ready for “repopulation” (the term many local officials are using to describe letting people go back home – seems like a strange and perhaps ill-advised turn of phrase). A very polite, sympathetic, and well-connected young lady sadly informed me that not only was Lawson Valley not ready for repopulation, it had just come under mandatory evacuation order this very morning, and law enforcement was having trouble getting everyone out of there. Knowing some of my neighbors, this is very easy to believe.

The third photo down is the view south from Lyons Peak. In the lower left is the other half of Deerhorn Valley, with no plumes from hot spots there, either. For the first time in several days, we can see Otay Mountain and Tecate Peak. Plenty of hanging smoke is in evidence, but so far as I can tell, none of it is from current burns.

Until last night, all the smoke from the fires has been blown by the Santa Ana winds coming out of the northeast at an average of 25 or 30 miles per hour. The smoke plume extended for hundreds of miles out to sea. Now that the winds have turned around into their normal pattern of onshore winds, all that smoke out over the ocean is blowing back toward land. Some of it is coming right back to us, some to the north and south of us. I'm sure this “blow-back” is a major part of the haze visible here.

Finally, the bottom photo is the west-looking camera, looking over Jamul toward Chula Vista. If you didn't know that was smoke and that we'd had these horrid fires, the scene is almost romantic – like something from the Smoky Mountains back east. But all that smoke used to be trees, chaparral, and homes…

After the Cedar Fire, when immediate threat to human life was over, we (San Diegans, I mean) started assessing the damage to our environment and our wildlife. That was four years ago, and we've learned much watching the flora and fauna start its recovery. Some things have surprised us positively, such as the oak trees that we thought were dead and gone – they've sprouted from deep within their branches. They're survivors. Other things are going to take much longer, especially the large conifers like the beautiful Ponderosa pines of our higher mountains. The wildlife has only just begun to return; we've seen only a few deer up in Cuyamaca, and I've read that the mountain lion population is still a tiny fraction of what it used to be. This year's fires have burned even more territory. Even worse, I suspect, is that much of the remaining unburned area has gone up – not all of it, mind you, but a good fraction of it. Or to say the same thing in a different way: San Diego County's backcountry will look much different in the next decade or two than it has since I moved here in 1974. I'll miss it, especially the large conifer forests. I got to having these sad thoughts today as I looked at the map of the fire burning on Palomar Mountain, where the best stands of Ponderosa I know were. If the satellite imagery is accurate, most of those pines are now charcoal…

Harris Fire Update...

The California Fire Alliance web site (the same place where I get MODIS thermal imagery) just posted a “fire perimeter” – to the best of my knowledge, this is the fire command's best estimate of the current perimeter of the burned area. In this image, it is the light blue cross-hatched area.

This map corresponds very well to both the MODIS data and observations from the cameras on Lyons Peak – but (assuming it's accurate) it fills in some details not obtainable from either of those sources. A word of caution as you look at this image: just because your home lies within the blue hatched area does NOT mean it was lost! The firefighters had (and still have) structure protection teams fighting at the fire's flanks and at hotspots throughout the entire fire. We have seen on the news many stories of their successes – and we know that the number of homes lost in the Harris Fire is a tiny fraction of the total number of homes within that area…

Harris Fire Update...

The top photo shows the view east from Lyons Peak as of a couple of minutes ago. You can see that the plume near Barrett Lake is greatly reduced; I'm not sure whether that's the result of firefighter's action or it just burned out. The smaller, closer plume near the lookout tower is also smaller and much lighter in color, hopefully on its way out.

The bottom photo shows the view west from Lyons Peak, toward the town of Jamul. The smoke plume we saw earlier just south (left) of Jamul Butte is completely gone. I watched news reports of the firefighters working hard there, with lots of helicopter support; I'd bet that their efforts are why that hotspot is dead…

San Diego Fires Update...

This is the latest MODIS satellite thermal imagery; I just captured this data a couple of minutes ago. I still have the light red cross-hatching for the older fires showing (these are fires dating back to 2000). The top capture is a closeup of the Harris Fire. The town of Jamul is on the left edge, about 1/3 of the way down the picture. Barrett Lake is the big lake on the right. Loveland reservoir is at the top, just to the left of center. Our home is south of the right edge of Loveland, about halfway down the unburned part.

The current hotspots (the red hatched areas) are exactly where I'd guessed from the earlier smoke plumes. You can see four red splotches just west (left) of Lake Barrett, right in that canyon I posted about earlier. The other hotspot is just south of the town of Jamul, and a little bit east, just north of state 94. This satellite data was actually captured several hours ago (it takes them a few hours to get it posted on the web), so the cameras are giving us more current information – and what they show is great progress. I'll post a capture of them in a few minutes.

The lower image is a “wide angle” view of all of San Diego County, along with the southern parts of Orange County. Palomar Mountain looks like the worst hotspot left in the county, though we know from news reports that there are still big hotspots near Julian, and also on Camp Pendleton (the fire visible near the coast). You can also see a fire burning up in Orange County; I know nothing about that one.

We've turned the corner on the fires overall in the county. Most of the news now is not new evacuation orders (as it has been), but rather announcements that people can now return to their homes. The evacuation centers are starting to empty out. There's optimism in the air, and neighbors helping neighbors…

Hotspot Update...

I posted earlier on the new flareup out toward Barrett Lake, and you can still see the smoke plume from that. New is the dark gray plume that appears to be coming from on Lyons Peak itself, just down the eastern slope from the camera. I'd be worried about the camera surviving except that I know that all four cameras have already survived a burn-over two nights ago.

Some Perspective...

I just saw Duncan Hunter (our Representative and one of the 87 announced candidates for President in 2008) on KUSI TV. He said something that resonated with me. I can't quote his words precisely. The context was a comparison between the emergency response to our wildfires and the response to the Katrina hurricane. He pointed out that the people of San Diego had demonstrated their good character in their response to these fires – almost no looting, so many volunteers and donated items that the relief agencies are begging people to stop contributing, and the complete absence of the “victim mentality” so much on display in New Orleans. He's right, and I'm glad he took the time to made the point…

The map at right is much like the other that I've posted this week, except that I have added the light red cross-hatched areas that show the perimeters of ALL the fires we've had since 2000. Between those past fires and this current fire, it looks to me like well over 50% of the land in the county has burned in the past 8 years. Our home is in that odd-shaped corridor that has not burned at all in that time, trending roughly east from La Mesa. We've been very lucky…

Another Flareup...

I just captured this view from Lyons Peak, looking east. That big, ugly, gray column of smoke is new in the past half hour. It appears to be coming from the small canyon that runs WNW from Barrett Lake towards Lyons Valley Road. This is the canyon that has an unpaved access road to the lake running through it, with a big steel gate along Lyons Valley Road.

Right now the the winds are very light, trending to the northeast if anything at all, so this doesn't look like an immediate threat to Lawson Valley...but I can't help but worry when there's a flareup that close…

Skyline Truck Trail Report...

One of our readers (thank you, Linda I.!) sent me the report below just a few minutes ago. She and her husband live near 94, between the Lyons Valley Road and Steele Canyon Road intersections. If you're a local, you most likely know who she is (but I'm not using her name here without permission). Suffice it to say that she's a reliable source. Here's her report:

We just returned from a trip up Skyline Truck Trail. Didn't go into Lawson Valley but will go back later. An update on Lyons Peak; appears the whole lower East side is still smoldering but I actually did not see flames this morning. That is the smoke you see from the cameras except the smoke is staying lower then the peak. At least one helicopter is working that area. Saw probably 8 fire trucks going into the area with strike teams... probably for structure protection in case in gets to the bottom by Lyons Valley Road. Saw many many cars patrolling the neighborhoods keeping them safe. There were three patrol cars turning into Lawson Valley as we went by. Just talked to --- and --- (the house --- Rudnick) and the air quality is bad, but it is bad here too. I think it is probably bad every where because of the calm winds. I understand they have tightened security at Steele Canyon and 94 adding a second block at Rancho Miguel. They are supposed to review the road closures at noon.

Trouble Near Jamul?

Update (10:23 AM):

Another photo capture at right. Unfortunately the smoke plume seems to be growing. It appears to be emerging from an area just south of Jamul Butte, just south of the gated community that is east of 94, a mile or so south of the town of Jamul. I can't tell where it is along an east-west line, but it seems to be fairly close to the butte itself…

Update (10:12 AM):

A reader just left a comment (thank you!) saying that everything was fine near the Catholic church in the town of Jamul; he lives nearby. He can't see far enough away to know exactly where the burn is…

Original Post (9:58 AM):

I've been watching the Lyons Peak cameras very carefully this morning, and I just spotted some new smoke – dark gray smoke risking from the area just to the left of Jamul Butte in the photo at right (click to enlarge). I can't tell exactly where that is (too much smoke in the air), but in general it appears to be south of the town of Jamul, somewhere along the line between Lyons Peak and the Jamul Indian Reservation. Much of that area is open space, so this doesn't necessarily mean that any homes are threatened. Also, we heard on the news that in the area just south of there was the location of a large backfire placed last night as part of the firefighting operation; this could be remnants of that operation and so might actually even be good news. If I learn any more, I will of course post about it. If anyone still in the area knows more, please let me know…

Lawson Valley Update...

The image at right is a capture of a small piece of the view from the north-looking camera on Lyons Peak. The ridge you see below and extending to the right of Viejas Mountain is the unnamed ridge that forms the north side of Lawson Valley. Below that ridge is Lawson Valley itself. Our home is out of sight, on the north slope of the ridge even lower down that forms the south side of Lawson Valley. In that space are hundreds of homes of our friends and neighbors – and they've all made it unscathed at this point.

Harris Fire Update...

Until about ten minutes ago, I thought today was Friday – but it's actually only Thursday! That's a measure of how Debbie and I have been disoriented by this whole experience. We both were able to sleep well last night, which helps considerably...

The news on the Harris Fire this morning is 100% good news. It's just delightful to be able to say that.

First, the satellite map (showing the entire county and all the fires). The Harris Fire is the southern fire, and there's not a single hotpot remaining in it. The gray, black, and orange splotches show the extent of the burned areas – a huge area. As I write this, I'm listening to the morning news conference, with County Supervisor Ron Roberts speaking. He introduced the session with some statistics, calling this the largest fire or disaster ever to strike in California, and in some ways the largest ever in the U.S. The burned areas are about 350,000 acres in extent. Their best estimate is that 1,470 homes have been burned, and “thousands” of other buildings (note: in the Cedar Fire four years ago, these early government estimates proved to be low, so I won't be surprised if the numbers go up). They are estimating 560,000 people have been evacuated.

The photo at right is the north view from Lyons Peak, captured around dawn this morning, toward Lawson Valley and our home. It looks great; the only smoke visible is from very near the peak. We called our home phone this morning; the answering machine still picks up. It is amazing how comforting to hear that stupid greeting message… The satellite imagery above confirms what we've heard from every other source: the fire never crossed significantly north of Lyons Valley Road, and not at all north of Skyline Truck Trail.

The view east is at right. There is still a lot of smoke in the area, but it is far better looking than it was yesterday. In the distance, you can see smoke plumes coming from the Barrett Dam area, and even further east. These are all too far from us to be a threat.

I'm still listening to the news conference, and official after official is blathering on about how well the official emergency response went, and also about how well the community itself has responded. With some amazement, one official said that the evacuation centers are requesting residents to stop bringing in non-monetary donations – they have more than they need. Certainly from our perspective the official response is far better than it was four years ago in the Cedar Fire. The one sour note – actually a very bitter note – is that the news is reporting that many perfectly functional, manned, and well-equipped firefighting aircraft were kept on the ground for two or three days because of bureaucratic infighting between CalFire (the coordinating agency) and the agencies controlling the aircraft. If that is true (and I suspect it is), it is just awful…

The view south is at right. We can see the peaks south of us for the first time since Monday. Deerhorn Valley, in the foreground, is smoky – but I don't see any remaining burning areas. I'm sure there are embers and small fires out there, but the dozens of major hotspots that we saw yesterday are all gone.

The firefighters are now speaking at the news conference. A consistent note from them is that the end of the Santa Ana winds has greatly helped their efforts. The fire chief for San Diego City just announced that 10,700 acres burned within the city limits – that's hard to wrap my brains around. The Harris Fire (the one that threatens our home) destroyed 170 homes, and it still burning in the Lyons Valley area, which they see now as the major threat from the Harris Fire. That is the front that threatens our home, so we're not quite out of the woods yet (though things look very good now).

Finally, here's the view from Lyons Peak to the west, toward the coast. It looks a bit like a normal foggy morning, but all that white stuff is smoke, not fog. I'm writing this from the livingroom of my friend's home in Chula Vista, out in that smoke you see just the left and above San Miguel peak.

We are hopeful that we will be allowed to return to our home today, or tomorrow at the latest. We're feeling very fortunate compared to so many of our neighbors – all those that we love, all the stuff we care about, is still fine. The worst we've suffered is some anxiety, discomfort, and inconvenience; we're fortunate to be able to stay with friends instead of an evacuation center. We're looking forward to going home; our hearts are with those who don't know whether their homes have survived, or who already know their home has burned…