Benazir Bhutto...

Politics in Pakistan are amongst the most bizarre in the world; even the locals appear amazed at the twists and turns it takes. This morning one of the most visible people in Pakistani politics was assassinated: Benazir Bhutto. Herself the daughter of a Pakistani prime minister (executed after being convicted of ordering the killing of a political opponent), she was twice elected Pakistan's prime minister – and twice ejected from office and sent into exile. She had returned to Pakistan just two months ago, to run for a third term as prime minister, against current prime minister (and thugocrat) Musharrif. You can read much more about her on Wikipedia.

I don't have any knowledge of who is responsible for her assassination, but she had plenty of enemies who might want her out of the way. For starters, there's Musharrif, a thugocrat who is quite used to employing violence as a political tool, and who has many powerful supporters greatly indebted to him. Then there's the Muslim hardliners, with which Pakistan abounds – they detested Ms. Bhutto, both for her “bad example” for Muslim women (she was far too uppity and independent for them), and for her stated intent of running Al Qaeda, Bin Laden, and any other mad mullahs out of Pakistan on the proverbial rail. It seems likely that one of these two groups carried out the assassination…

Where does this leave Pakistan? So far as I know, Ms. Bhutto was the only credible opposition to Musharrif – so barring some political miracle, the thug-in-chief will likely be re-elected. Not good, from our perspective. But the martyrdom of Ms. Bhutto may, in fact, lead to some political miracle. Great swaths of the Pakistani public supported her, heart and soul. Who can predict how they will react to her assassination?

The region has had more than it's share of instability and uncertainty, violence and despots. Sadly, Ms. Bhutto's assassination seems of a piece with many other elements of recent history there. It would be wonderful if somehow this provoked a popular revolution that tossed both the thugs and Al Qaeda out on their ears, but I'm not holding my breath on that one. It seems much more likely, unfortunately, that what gets provoked is more violence and heartache in a region that has all too much of it already…