Thursday, August 31, 2006

A Convenient Lie

Al Gore’s movie “An Inconvenient Truth” has a premise that dangerous global warming caused by human activity is a proven scientific fact.

That premise is false. Al Gore’s movie should have been titled “A Convenient Lie”.

In fact, there is no scientific consensus on almost any aspect of global warming, most especially with respect to mankind’s contribution to it as compared with the natural contribution.

Boston Globe columnist Alex Beam recently wrote this:

Speech codes are rare in the industrialized, Western democracies. In Germany and Austria, for instance, it is forbidden to proselytize Nazi ideology or trivialize the Holocaust. Given those countries' recent histories, that is a restraint on free expression we can live with.

More curious are our own taboos on the subject of global warming. I sat in a roomful of journalists 10 years ago while Stanford climatologist Stephen Schneider lectured us on a big problem in our profession: soliciting opposing points of view. In the debate over climate change, Schneider said, there simply was no legitimate opposing view to the scientific consensus that man - made carbon emissions drive global warming. To suggest or report otherwise, he said, was irresponsible.

Indeed. I attended a week’s worth of lectures on global warming at the Chautauqua Institution last month. Al Gore delivered the kickoff lecture, and, 10 years later, he reiterated Schneider’s directive. There is no science on the other side, Gore inveighed, more than once. Again, the same message: If you hear tales of doubt, ignore them. They are simply untrue.

I ask you: Are these convincing arguments? And directed at journalists, who are natural questioners and skeptics, of all people? What happens when you are told not to eat the apple, not to read that book, not to date that girl? Your interest is piqued, of course. What am I not supposed to know?

He goes on to describe his discovery that there is no consensus on Al Gore’s inconvenient “truth”. It’s well worth reading.

Now my state (California) has passed an emissions cap law that is intended to mitigate global warming (read about it here and here $). My summary: California just decided to voluntarily spend billions of dollars and discourage a wide variety of manufacturing industries, all for a reason based on junk science and political correctness.

Earlier this week, our state Assembly passed a bill mandating Hillary-style “single payer” health insurance. This is the system that exists in Britain and Canada today, the same system that has Brits and Canucks fleeing their country to find reasonable quality health care, delivered in a timely fashion. The waiting list for MRIs in Toronto is about six months; for heart bypasses in London over a year. Doctors are fleeing both countries — not for better health care, but to make more money, as the single payer system has relentlessly chipped away at their entrepreneurial opportunities. Our Assembly has decided that we need this sort of third-world medical care in California. Their apparent motivation? They want to make sure that all illegal aliens would have taxpayer-funded health care coverage (I read the bill myself, and that is exactly what it mandates). This bill is sitting in front of Governor Schwatzenegger, who has not announced where he stands on it. I sure hope he’s on the side of the angels on this one…

The first event makes me long for a revolution in Sacremento. The second one, should Schwartzenegger sign it, will have me seriously considering moving out of state.

Hmmm… I wonder if Jamul could secede from California?

Wednesday, August 30, 2006

TV and Movies

You may know, from previous posts, that I’m not generally a big fan of watching television or movies. I cannot even remember when I was last in a movie theater; all I remember is that the experience was (for me) awful. In a good month I may watch two or three movies, and an hour of television. Maybe. But clearly most of the world is not like me. My wife, Debbie, is much more typical — she absolutely adores old black-and-white movies. And many of my friends have similar interests — in fact, an email from one of those friends provoked this post. She wondered why it was that she, and so many others, enjoy television and movies so very much.

I have a theory about why I’m not very attracted to TV and movies, and also why most people are. My theory could easily be wrong, perhaps especially because a non-enthusiast came up with it.

The theory: people like activities that are intellectually passive without being boring. TV and movies are a passive activity; you don’t have to think about them, you just have to experience them. But they are (at least most of them) also not boring. The combination of the two makes them attractive — even very attractive — to most people.

Reading fiction, if you’re an expert reader, is not quite as passive — you have to use your imagination to envision the places and people in a book — but otherwise, I think it has similar attractions. Inexpert readers have to work very hard to read a book, so for them it isn’t a passive activity at all. That’s not all bad — people I know who have to work hard at reading also pay more attention to detail, and seem to have more appreciation of nuances. It’s an interesting tradeoff. I suspect this may also be true for anyone reading in a language other than their native language.

I think a big part of the reason why I am not particularly attracted to movies and TV is because I much prefer intellectually active pursuits. I have to be tired, or in the right mood, to really enjoy a movie. But learning something new about technology or science or history — I can get very engaged in those activities just about anytime.

Another phenomenon that I suspect is related: I’m not bothered in the slightest by leaving in the middle of a TV show or a movie. Once I get to a point where I’m bored, or I just can’t stand the passivity of the experience, I’ll just leave. Nearly everyone I know finds that behavior to be bizarre and/or obnoxious. It’s as if they think about sitting down to watch a show or a movie as an obligation — once started, they simply must complete it. This makes no sense to me at all! My attitude is that if there’s something I’d rather be doing (and there usually is), then by golly I’m gonna do it, and not just suffer in front of the screen.

What do you all think about my theory? It fits this non-enthusiast, but does it fit you enthusiasts (e.g., most of the world) out there?

Enquiring minds want to know…

Tuesday, August 29, 2006

2,996 Update

Late last night (my time), the 2,996th blogger signed up with the 2,996 project — meaning that every single one of the 2,996 victims of 9/11 will have a tribute created for them. All of these tributes will be unveiled on 9/11/2006, the fifth anniversary of 9/11.

But we’re not stopping there. Now the 2,996 project is signing up a second blogger to honor as many victims of 9/11 as we can with second tribute!

If you know any bloggers who have not already signed up, please direct them to the 2,996 project site, and tell them to sign up immediately!

Sunday, August 27, 2006

Flat Stanley #2

This is the second Flat Stanley Journal (see the first one here). Flat Stanley met some of our eight cats this morning. Here he’s snuggling with Tippy, the grumpy old man of our cats. About eight years ago, Debbie rescued Tippy from some terrible young hooligans who thought it was fun to hurt Tippy. She took him away from the bad kids, and we’ve given him a nice, safe home ever since. But he’s still grumpy. Tippy is the best jumper we’ve ever had (and we’ve had a lot of cats!). When he was younger, he could jump from the kitchen floor to the top of our refrigerator — and he made it look easy. Tippy got his name because of the tiny white tip on his tail (you can’t see it in this photo). Tippy’s favorite thing: he likes a little dish of half-and-half in the morning, when we make our coffee. He hollers at us if he doesn’t get it!

Maka Lea means “twinkling eyes” or “mischievous” in Hawai’ian, and that’s a really fitting name for him. He was sick (with a disease called distemper) when he was a tiny kitten, and as a result he’s very clumsy and awkward. But he doesn’t know it — he’s just a playful, happy cat. And it seems like he’s always getting into trouble — as Flat Stanley is discovering! Maka Lea’s favorite thing is to be taken outside and held in our arms right next to the hummingbird feeders. The hummingbirds aren’t scared of us at all — sometimes they’ll even land on our ears or our head. And even if we’re holding a cat (who would really like to eat a hummingbird or two), the “hummers” will buzz all around us, flying very close. Maka Lea loves it when the hummers hover right near by him!

Halala Pala means “big mellow” in Hawai’ian, and that name tells his story. We call him “the Ha” for short, because Halala Pala is quite a mouthful. He’s a great, big, roly-poly and very mellow kitty. We got him as part of a rescued feral cat litter, but we think he’s at least partly a kind of cat called “Maine coon” — known for their large size, mellow disposition, and markings just like Halala Pala has. Halala Pala’s favorite thing is a toy that looks like a small fishing pole with a feather where the hook would be. We swish that around, and you can see Halala Pala pretending that it’s a bird, and he’ll scamper all over the place trying to catch it.

Flat Stanley likes Halala Pala much better than Maka Lea!

By the way, when you see an apostrophe in the middle of a Hawai’ian word, that means you need to pronounce it with something called a “full glottal stop”. That sounds hard, but it’s really easy — it’s what you do when you say “oh-oh”. In Hawai’ian, you’d write that as “oh’oh”.

Well, after Flat Stanley heard about the hummingbirds from Maka Lea, he wanted to go out and see them for himself. So he climbed up on a hummingbird feeder and just waited for the hummers to show up. That took about 2 minutes — our hummers know they’re safe around our house, and that we have lots of tasty “hummer juice” for them to drink. Hummer juice is just a mixture of sugar and water, with a little food coloring in it to make it look pretty (the hummers really don’t care about that part). We have ten hummingbird and oriole feeders hung up outside our windows, each one holding between one quart and one and a half quarts — three gallons all together. The hummers will drain those completely empty in just over one day, in the summertime. It takes about 25 pounds of sugar to make a week’s worth of hummer juice in the summertime. In the winter, most of our hummers (all but one species) fly south to Costa Rica. In the springtime there are lots of flowers for them to drink the nectar from, so we don’t see them on our feeders so much. But from the summer until they leave around Halloween, they are chugging hummer juice at high speed. We figure we have between 300 and 400 hummers visiting us every day.

Flat Stanley made lots of hummer friends, and very quickly. In the picture above at far right, you can see one of the hummers coming in for a landing right by Flat Stanley’s feet. And in the other picture you can see quite a crowd of hummers. That particular kind of hummer feeder has eight places for hummers to drink from. We often see all eight places taken, with one or two hummers hovering just behind, waiting in line for their turn.

When you get really close to a hummingbird, it looks a little different than you might expect. In the far right picture (click to make it bigger) you see a male hummingbird, with his bright red throat patch. Right now the patch is a little tatty; they look their best in the springtime when they’re courting the females. Notice how those bright red features are splayed out above his “real” feathers — almost as if they were scales. And also notice how the normal feathers look almost stringy — each of those little “strings” is actually a teensy tiny little feather. If you touch a hummingbird, they’re not soft like you might expect — they actually feel a little stiff, sort of like a stiff paper bag. The left-hand photo shows a female hummer in the foreground, with that same male in the background. Notice how the female is much less colorful? This lets her hide better when she’s sitting on her nest, warming her eggs.

Flat Stanley really liked the hummers. I had trouble talking him into going for the rest of our walk. The first thing we stopped to look at was this patch of desert lillies. Like many lillies, these bloom in late summer or early autumn, instead of springtime. Botanists believe that this is a clever adaptation, so that the lily is in bloom when almost nothing else is — and all the bees and hummingbirds will visit it. In the springtime, the flowering plants are all competing with one another for the bee’s attention. The lillies don’t have this problem — they’ve got the bees all to themselves! We have lots of these lillies in our yard, and they grow all over the hill behind us. We look forward to them popping up every summer.

A short distance away, Flat Stanley found this big clump of Pampas Grass. This is not a native plant, but with a little water it grows very well here. This particular plant is about 8 feet across and 10 feet high. The beautiful white flowerheads come out in the late summer (these just erupted this week), bloom, and then turn into equally beautiful seedheads that stay good-looking for months. The whole time Flat Stanley was climbing up the Pampas Grass, we could hear him saying “ouch!", “ouch!” — because those pretty green grass blades have very sharp edges. In the closeup photo at left, in the part circled in blue you can see the tiny little “saw teeth” that line the edges of the Pampas Grass blades. They can give you a nasty cut. Who would expect that from grass? In the part circled in green, you’re looking at a very close-up view of Flat Stanley. See how the colors are actually made up of little tiny dots? Most color printers work this way. They usually only have three to six colors of ink in them — but they make up any other color by combining these little dots. For instance, lots of red dots with just a few yellow dots will look like a deep orange color — unless you have a magnifying glass powerful enough to see the individual dots, as in this picture.

Flat Stanley saw our tractor and wanted to go for a drive. We took him around the back part of our yard, and let him drive for a little while. We use this little tractor for all sorts of chores, saving us from digging or lifting by hand. We also use it to chip wood (we cut lots of brush every year), mow, and drill fence post holes. It’s a handy thing to have around! And lots of Flat Stanley fun, until he tried to drive into our fence! Along the way we passed by the tower that holds our weather station, and Flat Stanley couldn’t resist climbing it. This weather station measures the speed of the wind, what direction it’s coming from, the temperature, the humidity, the rainfall, and how bright the sun is. It has a radio transmitter in it that sends all the weather information to our computer, where we put it on a web site. Flat Stanley tried to climb all the way to the top, but he slipped and fell off. After he got up and dusted himself off, he said he was ready for a rest.

So we walked down to this big rock in our back yard. It’s an interesting place, because there are lots of things to see all in one place. You can see them all in the photo if you click on it to get a big version. The first thing to look at is the rock itself. It’s a very old rock; it’s been exposed to the air for hundreds of thousands of years. During that time, the wind, the rain, and plants (especially lichen) growing on the surface have all caused the rock to weaken, or “decompose”. The rock is granite — a kind of rock we usually think of as very hard and durable. But with enough time, even granite will break down. Decomposed granite forms all of our soil around here; it all comes from rocks like this one. Behind the rock is a large manzanita. Manzanitas like it best on the northern side of a hill, with very well-drained, sandy soil, near rocks, and on a small raised (elevated) place. That’s exactly where this manzanita is, and it’s a very happy manzanita because of that. On the right hand side of the picture, you can see a pine tree branch. That happens to be an Italian Stone Pine — not a native tree, but one that grows very well here. This particular kind of pine tree grows a “tap root” — a root that grows straight down into the ground until it finds water. Trees with a tap root can easily survive our long, hot, and extremely dry summertimes. Most pines do not have tap roots, so they cannot survive in our area unless you give them a lot of water in the summer. All of our water has to be pumped up from deep wells, most of which don’t have a lot of water in the first place — so it is expensive (for the pumping) and risky to have trees that need a lot of water. Down on the ground in front of Flat Stanley are some plants with very light green leaves forming a kind of umbrella over the bare dirt. These are just the right height for Flat Stanley to get some shade under. If you look very closely at the leaves of these plants, you’ll see they’re actually dark green, but covered with little tiny white hairs. This is a very common adaptation by desert plants, to protect them against drying out and overheating. These particular plants are very common on open ground in our area. To the left of Flat Stanley you can see a clump of scruffy-looking shrubbery poking out of the rocks. This is a monkey-flower shrub, and it’s one of our favorite plants in the area. Not because of how it looks now, of course — but because in the springtime these shrubs are completely covered in pale orange flowers. There something else surprising about this plant, too: it’s leaves are very sticky. Touching them feels a lot like touching the sticky part of a Post-It note. Flat Stanley got stuck in the monkey-flower, and we had to rescue him.

And after this adventure, Flat Stanley was plumb tuckered out. He’s taking a nap in his envelope again…

Saturday, August 26, 2006

Flat Stanley #1

Flat Stanley is visiting with us for a week or so. He hails from Flat Rhode Island, where he lives with a fellow blogger, her husband, and their three kids (Jacob, Zachary, and Kaileigh). He’s visiting with us as part of an educational program to teach the family about what it’s like in other parts of the country. We volunteered to host Flat Stanley out here in our California home. This is the first of several journal entries about Flat Stanley’s visit here.

Flat Stanley has a major travelling advantage over the rest of us, especially in these days of high gasoline prices. You see, Flat Stanley is so flat that he fits quite nicely into a Priority Mail envelope — so he got to travel all the way across the country for about $5. Pretty darned good deal, Flat Stanley!

This morning just after sunrise, Debbie (my wife), I, and our three field spaniels all went for a walk up the old, disused dirt road that goes uphill from our property. We’ve taken this walk — about a mile each way — many, many times. The road wanders slowly uphill from our house, around small chaparral-covered hills. There are interesting things to see all along the way, changing with every season. And there are very pleasant views of our valley (Lawson Valley) that are different as you walk around every corner.

In the summertime our area usually gets very warm every afternoon — often the temperature goes over 95 degrees Fahrenheit, and on the hottest days it goes over 105 degrees. That sounds just awful to anyone used to the temperatures on the East coast of the U.S. — but the heat here “feels” very different, because our relative humidity is so much lower. Whereas back East it’s very common for the relative humidity to be 90% or even 100%, here the usual relative humidity during the day is less than 20% — and sometimes less than 10%. This very dry air makes the heat much easier to bear, mostly because sweating cools you off much more effectively.

Flat Stanley seemed to like just sitting around more than he did climbing our hill. Since he’s so used to Flat Rhode Island, we’re thinking it might be the thin air at our altitude that’s got him feeling lazy. At the top of this road, we were about 2,300 feet above the ocean — much higher than the very highest place in all of Rhode Island. And in other parts of California, there are huge mountains that are almost seven times taller than where we walked with Flat Stanley.

In any case, Flat Stanley seemed to enjoy sitting in these Mountain Mahogany bushes more than anywhere else. These are a very common chaparral shrub, and very pretty this time of year when their seeds are out. If you touch the seeds, you’ll see that they are very soft — they make a very comfortable resting spot for Flat Stanley. When the sun shines from behind them, the Mountain Mahogany seeds are bright white, and from a distance they look like flowers. This time of year, if we look out over the chaparral, we see these white “flowered” bushes everywhere we look.

All three of our dogs (Miki, Mo’i, and Lea, front-to-rear) got along just fine with Flat Stanley. Mo’i (in the closeup) and Flat Stanley had several long conversations while on our walk. As best we could tell, Mo’i was asking Flat Stanley whether he’d make a good snack (Mo’i is always thinking about food!), and Flat Stanley was telling Mo’i how awful he would taste. Mo’i didn’t eat Flat Stanley, so he must have been persuasive!

Mo’i and Lea run in agility competition (Debbie is their trainer and handler). In these competitions they have to run through a complicated obstacle course, with jumps, tunnels, poles to weave through, and other challenging things. To win, they have to go through the entire obstacle course perfectly — and do it really fast! Mo’i is currently the #2 agility field spaniel in the U.S., and because of that he’ll be travelling to Long Beach, California in December to be part of a nationwide contest. He’s real excited about that (and so is Debbie!). The rest of us are very proud of the two of them.

After he climbed this bush, Flat Stanley could see the view out toward the Pacific Ocean. This morning, like many summer mornings, the lower altitudes toward the shore had a layer of low clouds over them. From our higher vantage point, all we could see was the cloud tops. If we were at the beach, we wouldn’t see the sun at all — just a layer of gray clouds.

Sometimes this layer of white clouds looks to us like a kind of fantastical ocean, with the mountain tops poking out as though they were islands in the sea. These clouds are especially beautiful in the light of a bright full moon — they have a wispy look, like the poufiest meringue in the world.

Anybody who knows the chaparral knows the manzanita tree, one of the most interesting and most beautiful plants that grows here. Flat Stanley took one look at this little manzanita and immediately jumped up to rest for a while in its shade. Manzanita trees are very common in the area immediately surrounding our home. We live in exactly the kind of area they like: the north-facing slope of a hill, with soil made from decomposed granite that drains extremely well. Manzanitas are very well adapted to the hot, dry climate we live in. They have a very broad system over hairlike roots just under the surface of the ground — these roots catch every drop of rain (or dew) that falls on them. The manzanita’s leaves are covered with very fine hairs, almost like velvet. These hairs act as a layer of insulation, keeping the hot sun off the leaves and helping them retain water. The light green color of their leaves also helps them stay cooler — and they are beautiful against the deep red bark.

Climbing a different bush, and looking in a different direction, Flat Stanley could see Cajon Mountain. It looks very big and rugged in this photo, but it’s actually only a medium-sized mountain in our area. The rocky faces of Cajon Mountain are a famous landmark here, especially from the town of El Cajon, which is named after the mountain.

Three years ago, a terrible wildfire burned large parts of the county (San Diego County) where we live. Hundreds of houses were burned down, and many square miles of wild forest and chaparral were also burned. All of Cajon mountain was burned in that fire, and even though it’s 15 miles away from us in that picture, you can still see some of the black, charcoal-like marks the fire caused on the rocks.

For people, these wildfires are awful things, and we do our best to prevent them and put them out. But it is interesting to know that the chaparral plants and animals actually depend on these fires occurring, usually every 50 to 100 years. Many of the shrubs and trees that live in the chaparral have seeds that will not sprout unless there is a fire (the manzanita tree is one of these).

Flat Stanley got really tired on this walk, and now he’s taking a nap in his envelope. We’ll have another Flat Stanley adventure tomorrow…

Friday, August 25, 2006

What Lock?

Think again.

As this article explains, a old technique for opening almost any pin tumbler lock has recently been rediscovered and greatly improved — to the point where just about anybody can open just about any keyed lock quite easily. As noted security expert Marc Weber Tobias reports:

I interviewed and videotaped the eleven year old girl at the lock picking village at DEFCON who demonstrated how she could quickly open a popular cylinder. She had no prior experience with locks and did not understand the underlying theory.

Nice.

I read the article — it really does look like a trivially easy way to open keyed locks…

Jamul Casino EIR

The EIR (Environmental Impact Report) for the proposed Jamul Indian Casino has been long awaited by the majority in the community who oppose this project (including us). An article in this morning’s San Diego Union-Tribune says that it is due to be released today sometime, and will be made available on the Jamul Indian Village web site. The newspaper has a copy of the report already, and according to them there are only two unmitigatable impacts listed. One is a traffic impact, and the other is how the casino would change Jamul’s appearance:

The only other such impact was described as the project’s “visual transformation of land within the Jamul valley.” However, the report adds that “this is a trend that began long ago with San Diego County’s approval of residential subdivisions and commercial facilities” in Jamul.

That finding is as close as the report comes to addressing a primary objection of opponents – that the casino would alter the fundamental character of Jamul, a bedroom community that considers itself a rural enclave despite its 20-mile proximity to downtown San Diego.

Lead consultant Joe Broadhead of Environmental Data Systems said the report does not analyze potential changes in community character because that is difficult to gauge and subjective to assess. Instead, he said, “We break all of the (related) issues down to their component parts – air quality, traffic, noise” and other factors that can be quantified.

In other words, they completely bypassed one of the major objections of the community — that the presence of the casino would irrevocably change the rural character of Jamul. It looks to me like they’re setting up their legal arguments with the claim that Jamul’s rural character has already changed.

I don’t know whether a change in the rural character is actually something that could be successfully used to challenge an EIR. But I can’t imagine any other species than lawyers who would make a straight-faced claim that the monstrous proposed casino would NOT change Jamul’s character. There must be a significant part of law school devoted to thrashing the common sense out of every lawyer…

Thursday, August 24, 2006

Light Blogging

You may remember a post a few weeks ago, telling you about the 2,996 Project (see the graphic “Join The Tribute” at right). Dale Roe (the project’s founder) set out to sign up a blog to honor each of the 2,996 victims of 9/11 with a web tribute. All 2,996 tributes would be unveiled on 9/11/2006 — the fifth anniversary of that awful day.

I signed up about two months ago, when just a few hundred blogs had signed up. Dale has been out publicizing the project, and the blogs have been regularly signing up. Just a few days ago, we looked at the rate of signups and — with some satisfaction — concluded that we were likely to have every victim assigned to a blogger before 9/11/2006.

Yesterday something happened that dramatically changed the dynamics of the project: Michelle Malkin signed up to do a tribute, and publicized it on her very popular blog. The result was a “Michelle-o-lanche” — a flash flood of people reading Michelle’s post and clicking over to the 2,996 Project’s web site. And hundreds of these visitors signed right up to honor a 9/11 victim.

The chart above shows what this did to my web site’s traffic. You’re seeing a graph of bandwidth consumption — basically just the number of bits per second that my web server is spitting out. You can see exactly when Michelle mader her post, about 11:30 yesterday morning — because the bandwidth consumption immediately jumped right up to the max (about 340,000 bits per second). At one point I had over 1,000 people simultaneously using my web server, by far the most I’ve ever had on my little site. The result of all this (aside from the wonderfully high rate of 2,996 Project signups) is that my web site was very slow yesterday.

And this morning, the traffic is starting to pick back up, already at nearly the high rates of yesterday. So…until things settle down a bit, I’m going to lay off any more posts on my blog (which is on the same web server), in the hopes of freeing up some more bandwidth for the project.

Oh, and if you’re a blogger, and you haven’t signed up yet, then get theeself over to the 2,996 Project and sign up right now!

Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Modern Math

I’ve blogged about my sad experiences with modern American education on several occastions. This “joke” instantly resonated — but more as political commentary than as a joke:

Last week I purchased a burger and fries for $3.58.

The counter girl took my $4.00 and I pulled 8 cents from my pocket and gave it to her. She stood there, holding the nickel and 3 pennies. While looking at the screen on her register, I sensed her discomfort and tried to tell her to just give me two quarters, but she hailed the manager for help. While he tried to explain the transaction to her, she stood there and cried.

Why do I tell you this? Because of the evolution in teaching math since the 1950s…

The Evolution of Teaching Math

1950:

A logger sells a truckload of lumber for $100. His cost of production is 4/5 of the price. What is his profit?

1960:

A logger sells a truckload of lumber for $100. His cost of production is 4/5 of the price, or $80. What is his profit?

1970:

A logger sells a truckload of lumber for $100. His cost of production is $80. Did he make a profit?

1980:

A logger sells a truckload of lumber for $100. His cost of production is $80 and his profit is $20. Your assignment: Underline the number 20.

1990:

A logger cuts down a beautiful forest because he is selfish and inconsiderate and cares nothing for the habitat of animals or the preservation of our woodlands. He does this so he can make a profit of $20. What do you think of this way of making a living?

Topic for class participation after answering the question: How did the birds and squirrels feel as the logger cut down their homes?

(There are no wrong answers.)

2000:

An evil logger who voted for Bushitler, causing Al Gore (the people’s hero) to lose, cut down a tree and sold it for $100 — and the only reason he did it was to make a profit! He paid $80 for the logs. Write down how much profit the evil logger gouged, along with how hard you tried to get the right answer. Your grade will be based on how hard you tried.

2006:

Un ranchero vende una carretera de madera por $100. El coste de su produccion era $80. Cuantas tortillas se pueden comprar?

I learned my math in the '50s and '60s. A bridge you drive over a few years from now will be designed by people who learned their math from the '90s on.

Doesn’t that make you the least bit uncomfortable?

Me, I’m hoping that our future engineers are all immigrants from a society that has kept its respect for a solid education — some Estonians, Russians, or Chinese, for example.

Quote of the Day

By Kate O’Bierne:

"John 'Two Americas' Edwards, who wants to be president of both of them, is working it hard — he bears watching even if we can’t bear watching."

Oh, yes. That’s exactly right, Kate.

It's Called "Self-Defense"

Recently a lowlife, knuckle-dragging idgit (known in this story as “Mr. Critter") in Texas decided to make a bunch of noise on his girlfriend’s porch. A neighbor came over and remonstrated with the IQ-challenged one. At which point, the idgit took out a gun, whacked the neighbor on the noggin (and to his knees), and threatened him. At which point the neighbor took out his Glock handgun and shot the S.O.B., and:

Mr. Critter had the good manners to drop the unloaded Daisy BB pistol with which he had armed himself and expired.

The officers handed the neighbor a receipt for his Glock and told him to come down to the station and pick it up when the Grand Jury was done.

I love Texas.

Go read the rest!

Tuesday, August 22, 2006

Why I Fear for Our Future

Much more eloquently than I ever could, Thomas Sowell explains why I am afraid for our future (and by “our", I mean America and the rest of western civilization):

From Point of No Return? by Thomas Sowell

What kind of people provide a market for videotaped beheadings of innocent hostages? What kind of people would throw an old man in a wheelchair off a cruise liner into the sea, simply because he was Jewish? What kind of people would fly planes into buildings to vent their hate at the cost of their own lives?

These are the kinds of people we are talking about getting nuclear weapons. And what of ourselves?

Do we understand that the world will never be the same after hate-filled fanatics gain the ability to wipe whole American cities off the face of the earth? Do we still imagine that they can be bought off, as Israel was urged to buy them off with “land for peace” — a peace that has proved to be wholly illusory?

Oh, take a few minutes and read the whole thing — this man has a clear, strong voice, and his head is screwed on perfectly straight…

Then help me make sure that we don’t get ever let a Kerry, Dean, Pelosi, Reid, Kennedy, Chaffee or any other spineless moonbat into a position of power in this country…

Cartoon of the Day

I ran across this little graphic in this evening’s perusal of the news.

I give you fair warning: put down any hot drinks you’re holding, and be sure that your mouth is empty before you click on the thumbnail to enlarge the image at right.

But don’t miss it!

New Moon

A half hour or so before sunrise this morning, I walked outside and saw the most beautiful new moon I’ve ever seen. I wasn’t even aware that it was time for a new moon, so I was taken completely by surprise; a very nice surprise.

It was low in our northeast sky, just above (from my perspective) the mountains that form the northern wall around Lawson Valley. The mountains were hiding the brightening, pre-dawn sky from me, leaving the very, very thin crescent of the new moon hanging in very dark blue, almost black, sky. Just a few degrees above and to the east of the new moon was Venus, shining very brightly. In fact, Venus was quite a bit brighter than the moon — which tells you a lot about just how skinny that crescent was.

I don’t know how you could make a new moon any better. At least, not without invoking magic…

Monday, August 21, 2006

Profiling and Security

Most Americans take it for granted that some degree of profiling makes sense. For example, when looking at a group of airline passengers to assess the risk that they’re going to hijack or blow up a plane, it makes sense to spend more time examining the young Arab man with the “Allah Akhbar” T-shirt than the tiny 95-year old Korean grandmother in a wheelchair.

Amazingly (to me, at least), not everyone agrees with this. Some people believe that by spending more time examining that young Arab man we are perpetuating a cultural stereotype, and sending a message of intolerance. Well, actually, I’m ok with that — I am a very tolerant man, but I am very intolerant of terrorists and the societies and cultures that produce them.

So, with all that in mind, here’s a hint for the Department of Homeland Security — some blatant profiling that they can use to help efficiently detect terrorists in the airport:

Friday, August 18, 2006

Half-and-Half Ponder

Just a few minutes ago, I was out in our kitchen, making myself a cup of Earl Grey tea (my favorite mid-morning pick-me-up). I went into the refrigerator to get the carton of half-and-half, and discovered that it was a brand-new one. It is one of those new-fangled milk cartons with the plastic spout that has a screw-on cap, and because it was unusued it still had the sealing cap in it — the kind with the tiny plastic ring attached that you pull on to extract the sealing cap. The kind that people with big fingers, like me, have some trouble fishing out (my fingers won’t fit through the ring, so I have to grasp it with two fingers tightly enough to give it a good yank). And while I was busy being irritated by this, I got to the ponder…

...just imagine, if you can, what someone from, say, Roman times would think of this carton. Somewhere I once read that containers — especially water-proof or rodent-proof containers — were amongst the most valuable of all material things in the Roman world. They thought of containers with something like the attitude we might have about our car — they had that kind of value.

Imagine someone with that mindset looking at my irritating milk carton. A disposable container would be a difficult concept for them to get their minds around. Can you imagine a disposable car? A container with flexible sides, and yet was still waterproof — the only thing like that the Romans had would be “skins", used for water or wine. The impossibly thin cardboard, and the plastic coating, would both be astonishing and incomprehensible materials to your average Roman. And that plastic spout, with the seal I was irritated at? That would be nothing short of miraculous to them, as they’d perceive it as the one-of-a-kind work of a highly skilled artist or craftsman; the product of many hours of work. On a disposable container. Yup, they’d have trouble wrapping their brains around all that.

And then there’s that refrigerated fresh milk thing. Long ago I remember reading that early city dwellers like the Romans rarely tasted fresh milk (from any beast). Even though the milk could be kept for a day or so if kept in cold water, or longer with ice, there was no transportation or distribution system in place that could move chilled milk. So people back then routine drank soured milk, as well as other dairy products (such as cheese or yoghurt) that would keep longer without refrigeration. Sour milk — which most Americans would throw away as “spoiled” — is what most of the world thought of as “milk”. To the point where several ancient diaries report the negative first reaction to fresh milk from adults who grew up with sour milk as their norm. They thought of the fresh milk as thin, tasteless, and bland. Well, I guess it is, by comparison. But I still prefer it.

I felt better about my irritating half-and-half container after this ponder…

Wednesday, August 16, 2006

Different World

This comparison between the accomplishments of Muslims versus the accomplishments of Jews, as measured by Nobel prizes awarded, took me quite by surprise. The basic data is verified by Wikipedia here and here. Take a gander:

The Global Islamic population is approximately 1,200,000,000, or 20% of the world population.

They have received the following Nobel Prizes:

Literature:

1988 - Najib Mahfooz

Peace:

1978 - Mohamed Anwar El-Sadat

1994 - Yaser Arafat

Physics:

1990 - Elias James Corey

1999 - Ahmed Zewail

Medicine:

1960 - Peter Brian Medawar

1998 - Ferid Mourad

The Global Jewish population is approximately 14,000,000, or about 0.02% of the world population.

They have received the following Nobel Prizes:

Literature:

1910 - Paul Heyse

1927 - Henri Bergson

1958 - Boris Pasternak

1966 - Shmuel Yosef Agnon

1966 - Nelly Sachs

1976 - Saul Bellow

1978 - Isaac Bashevis Singer

1981 - Elias Canetti

1987 - Joseph Brodsky

1991 - Nadine Gordimer World

Peace:

1911 - Alfred Fried

1911 - Tobias Michael Carel Asser

1968 - Rene Cassin

1973 - Henry Kissinger

1978 - Menachem Begin

1986 - Elie Wiesel

1994 - Shimon Peres

1994 - Yitzhak Rabin

Physics:

1905 - Adolph Von Baeyer

1906 - Henri Moissan

1907 - Albert Abraham Michelson

1908 - Gabriel Lippmann

1910 - Otto Wallach

1915 - Richard Willstaetter

1918 - Fritz Haber

1921 - Albert Einstein

1922 - Niels Bohr

1925 - James Franck

1925 - Gustav Hertz

1943 - Gustav Stern

1943 - George Charles de Hevesy

1944 - Isidor Issac Rabi

1952 - Felix Bloch

1954 - Max Born

1958 - Igor Tamm

1959 - Emilio Segre

1960 - Donald A. Glaser

1961 - Robert Hofstadter

1961 - Melvin Calvin

1962 - Lev Davidovich Landau

1962 - Max Ferdinand Perutz

1965 - Richard Phillips Feynman

1965 - Julian Schwinger

1969 - Murray Gell-Mann

1971 - Dennis Gabor

1972 - William Howard Stein

1973 - Brian David Josephson

1975 - Benjamin Mottleson

1976 - Burton Richter

1977 - Ilya Prigogine

1978 - Arno Allan Penzias

1978 - Peter L Kapitza

1979 - Stephen Weinberg

1979 - Sheldon Glashow

1979 - Herbert Charles Brown

1980 - Paul Berg

1980 - Walter Gilbert

1981 - Roald Hoffmann

1982 - Aaron Klug

1985 - Albert A. Hauptman

1985 - Jerome Karle

1986 - Dudley R. Herschbach

1988 - Robert Huber

1988 - Leon Lederman

1988 - Melvin Schwartz

1988 - Jack Steinberger

1989 - Sidney Altman

1990 - Jerome Friedman

1992 - Rudolph Marcus

1995 - Martin Perl

2000 - Alan J. Heeger

Economics:

1970 - Paul Anthony Samuelson

1971 - Simon Kuznets

1972 - Kenneth Joseph Arrow

1975 - Leonid Kantorovich

1976 - Milton Friedman

1978 - Herbert A. Simon

1980 - Lawrence Robert Klein

1985 - Franco Modigliani

1987 - Robert M. Solow

1990 - Harry Markowitz

1990 - Merton Miller

1992 - Gary Becker

1993 - Robert Fogel

Medicine:

1908 - Elie Metchnikoff

1908 - Paul Erlich

1914 - Robert Barany

1922 - Otto Meyerhof

1930 - Karl Landsteiner

1931 - Otto Warburg

1936 - Otto Loewi

1944 - Joseph Erlanger

1944 - Herbert Spencer Gasser

1945 - Ernst Boris Chain

1946 - Hermann Joseph Muller

1950 - Tadeus Reichstein

1952 - Selman Abraham Waksman

1953 - Hans Krebs

1953 - Fritz Albert Lipmann

1958 - Joshua Lederberg

1959 - Arthur Kornberg

1964 - Konrad Bloch

1965 - Francois Jacob

1965 - Andre Lwoff

1967 - George Wald

1968 - Marshall W. Nirenberg

1969 - Salvador Luria

1970 - Julius Axelrod

1970 - Sir Bernard Katz

1972 - Gerald Maurice Edelman

1975 - Howard Martin Temin

1976 - Baruch S. Blumberg

1977 - Roselyn Sussman Yalow

1978 - Daniel Nathans

1980 - Baruj Benacerraf

1984 - Cesar Milstein

1985 - Michael Stuart Brown

1985 - Joseph L. Goldstein

1986 - Stanley Cohen [& Rita Levi-Montalcini]

1988 - Gertrude Elion

1989 - Harold Varmus

1991 - Erwin Neher

1991 - Bert Sakmann

1993 - Richard J. Roberts

1993 - Phillip Sharp

1994 - Alfred Gilman

1995 - Edward B. Lewis

The Jews are not demonstrating with their dead on the streets, yelling and chanting and asking for revenge; the Jews are not promoting brain washing the children in military training camps, teaching them how to blow themselves up and cause maximum deaths of Jews and other non-Muslims.

The Jews don’t hijack planes, nor kill athletes at the Olympics; the Jews don’t traffic slaves, nor have leaders calling for Jihad and death to all the Infidels.

The Jews don’t have the economic strength of petroleum, nor the possibilities to force the world’s media to see “their side” of the question.

Perhaps the world’s Muslims should consider investing more in standard education and less in blaming the Jews for all their problems…

It doesn’t surprise me that Jews, with their culture that glorifies intellectual accomplishment, would be over-represented in the Nobel prizes. Nor does it surprise me that Muslims are under-represented — in modern times, at least, it appears that Muslim culture has drifted very far toward mysticism irrationality. But the degree of the difference I was shocked by.

I see this as very worrisome evidence about how different modern Muslim society is from modern Western society. It tells me that a significant fraction of the human population — 1.2 billion people — is stuck in some kind of primitive intellectual wasteland that has kept them from participating in the extraordinary accomplishments of (the rest of) mankind over the past century. And this makes me worried about whether we’ll ever succeed in integrating modern Muslim society with the rest of the world — the beliefs and intellectual contexts of the two groups may just be too far separated to be integratable.

That’s my depressing ponder for the day…

Tip o’the hat to frequent contributor JimM…

Big Two Five

And we’re celebrating with sushi!

Tuesday, August 15, 2006

Lemurian Fellowship

As you get close to Ramona, heading north California on State 67, you’ll pass a landscaped hill and driveway on your right. There’s a big sign on the hill, saying simply “Lemurian Fellowship”. I’ve passed that sign many times, and wondered just what it could be referring to.

Now, thanks to a little googling, I know the answer.

My first thought (this being California) is that it was some kind of society dedicated to friendly relations between mankind and lemurs. Perhaps too friendly, in a NAMBLA sort of way, so I was a little afraid to go there. But, thankfully, the Lemurian Fellowship has nothing whatsoever to do with lemurs, or unnaturally friendly relations with them.

Whew!

But as I explored in more detail what the Lemurian Fellowship was really all about, I wasn’t greatly comforted. It turns out that the Lemurian Fellowship is a cult religion/philosophy, with their core belief being that a superior human civilization existed until about 26,000 years ago, when the continent they lived on ("Mu", also called “Lemuria") sank into the Pacific Ocean. The map at upper right is allegedly a map of this lost continent.

From the Lemurian Fellowship's pamphlet “Into the Sun":

THE FIRST AND GREATEST CIVILIZATION

At one time in human history, there was a civilization where people enjoyed a peace of mind not possible in today’s world. Its population understood and lived by divine law, personally and nationally, enabling them to build the most magnificent civilization the world has known, which flourished for fifty thousand years.

The first human society was organized 78,000 years ago on the Continent of Mu (Lemuria), which once covered most of what is now the Pacific Ocean. The civilization began when a few outstanding individuals of above average mental ability realized the possibilities of a better way of life. Through close observation, practice, and divine assistance, they gradually acquired an understanding of universal law, becoming known as Elders. Gathering other deeper thinkers, they took the first steps toward social unity by teaching those who joined this effort to live cooperatively in conformance with God’s laws.

Within an incredibly short time, the Lemurian or Mukulian Empire developed, prosperous and at peace with all. Growing into a benign and cooperative power, it eventually achieved cultural and material accomplishments which would seem impossible today. But a fatal mistake was made. As the civilization grew, untrained helpers were brought in to perform manual labor. Gradually this proletarian element increased, while the citizenry shrank because few were being trained to become citizens. Eventually, the proletariat began taking over, administering the government according to their own ideas. The great Empire began to decline, and around 24,000 B.C., after cataclysmic upheavals, the continent sank beneath the waves of the Pacific.

As usual in such a cult, not a shred of what most people would consider “evidence” is presented to support their fundamental beliefs. For example, in the section of the pamphlet dedicated to persuading you that Mu actually existed, you’ll find this:

Consider Malden Island in the central Pacific. Uninhabited when discovered in 1798, Malden was waterless, barren, uninhabitable. Yet it contained remnants of forty massive stone temples. Radiating from the temples in every direction are highways paved with basalt blocks – highways leading into the Pacific Ocean! Where did these highways go originally? By whom and for whom were they built?

Jane Resture’s authoritative Oceania site has a slightly different take (NASA satellite photo of Malden Island at right):

There is abundant evidence to show that Polynesians lived on Malden before its discovery by white men. Earliest explorers reported stone-faced platforms and graves. Several descriptions have been given of these, together with speculations as to when and by whom they were built.

The late Dr. J. Macmillan Brown draws a highly imaginative picture of “great temple pyramids” dating from a time when Malden formed part of a “vanquished empire,” and people coming on pilgrimages to it from “fertile archipelagos within canoe distance of its shores,” which now have sunk. Kenneth P. Emory, Bishop Museum anthropologist, who studied the ruins in 1924, has published an account which agrees not at all with these fantastic ideas. The stone structures are located around the beach ridges, principally on the north and south. They include temple platforms, called marae, house sites, and graves. They indicate that Polynesians lived on Malden for several generations, and that this was not many centuries ago. Comparisons with stone structures on Tuamotu atolls show that a population of between 100 and 200 natives could have produced all of the Malden structures. Maraes of a similar type are found on Ra’ivavae, one of the Austral Islands. The natives got their water from wells, remains of which have been found, always dry or salty at present.

At least they don’t appear to have a proclivity to violence, like the radical Islamic fundamentalists; I take some small comfort from that.

But … they walk among us…

Monday, August 14, 2006

Last Supper

I’ve blogged about the Descanso Junction Cafe before. It’s a little family restaurant just off of I-8 in Descanso. For those of you not familiar with rural San Diego County, Descanso is a little town at the base of the Cuyamaca Mountains, about 3,500' high. There are a lot of retired folks living there (especially, for some reason, retired police officers), along with long-distance commuters (it’s about 40 miles from there into the concentration of jobs in San Diego) and a few people who actually make their living right there.

The Descanso Junction Cafe has been open under new owners for a few years, and it has become one of the places we frequent. Partly it’s for the good homestyle food (at very fair prices), and partly it’s for the homey, familiar atmosphere. It’s certainly not fancy — some of the seats are in need of repair, the china is a little tired, and the flatware is very … flat. The waitresses have big, honest smiles and are pleasantly sassy — but they’re not going to coddle you. Setting your table generally means dumping the silverware and paper napkins in a pile for you to sort out on your own. And it’s most definitely a community sort of place — almost everyone eating there is a local, and you see all sorts of community-oriented signs, fund-raising cans, and the like there. It’s obvious that the owners think of themselves as part of the community.

We love it.

But a couple of weeks ago the owners announced that starting today there would be no more dinner served at the Descanso Junction Cafe. There just weren’t enough customers coming in for it to pay — so from now on, it’s 6 am to 2 pm, breakfast and lunch only. Last night, Debbie, Jim (our neighbor and friend), and myself made the trip up there for our last supper at the old cafe. And it was a good one, of course. I had the special: a seafood platter with grilled halibut, scampi, and fish-and-chips style cod. Delicious!

Of course we’ll still be coming up for lunch. And while we haven’t often been there for breakfast, I forsee more of this in our future.

Somehow we’ve got to make it worthwhile for them to open for dinner again!

Sunday, August 13, 2006

Mene Sculpture

Being the proud owners of three beautiful field spaniels (or is it the other way around?), we’re naturally always on the lookout for art that relates to field spaniels. I have an automatic search going on eBay all the time, looking for new stuff that pops up. And a few months ago, a doozy came along — a bronze sculpture of two field spaniels chasing a goose. The sculptor was Pierre-Jules Mene, who probably made this sculpture between 1850 and 1860 (according to the art dealer selling this on eBay). If that’s correct, it’s from the earliest days of the breed — and the two dogs in the sculpture have exactly that look. There’s a short biography of Mene below.

Not being knowledgable about art at all, I did a whole bunch of research before bidding on this piece. As best I could figure from the bazillion places where you can buy Mene works (the dude was prolific, just as the biography points out!), it was worth about $2,500 to $3,500 — a lot more than we were willing to pay. But the current bid was way below that, in the range we might consider, so I sniped it at the last second — and to our great surprise we ended up taking the piece, at a price we were happy to pay for such a thing of beauty.

We waited with bated breath for several days until it showed up — it was shipped from England. The dealer did a terrific job packing it, and it arrived at our place unscathed. It now sits on our livingroom table, as we can’t think where better to put it, where we can look at it as we’d like.

When we started looking for field spaniel art, it never dawned on us that someone might have made a field spaniel sculpture. Now I’m looking for more…

The photo at right is a stereo pair. If you know the trick about crossing your eyes to view them, you can see a stereograph (like the old ViewMasters) by looking at the larger version (click on the little one to get it). Otherwise you’ll need a stereo viewer.

Pierre Jules Mene (1810 - 1877) was born in Paris, France on March 25th 1810. He was the most successful and prolific Animalier sculptor of his time, especially in commercial terms, and he is considered an equal to any in ability. His father was a successful metal turner who taught his son how to work with metals and the principles of casting at an early age. Mene married in 1832 at the age of twenty-two and earned his living by doing small jobs relating to his training with metals such as furniture adornments and clock decorations. Like Barye and Fremiet he spent a great deal of his time at the Jardin des Plantes in Paris drawing. There he invested many hours sketching the animals from which he would make his sculptures. Though he did receive minimal instruction in art he never attended any of the prestigious art schools and was for the most part a self taught artist.

By 1837 Mene had established the first of his many foundries where he would cast all of his own bronzes throughout his successful career. His first exhibit was at the Salon of 1838 of a Dog and Fox which he cast in bronze. Mene continued to exhibit at the annual Salons, submitting one or more models every year throughout his lifetime. Mene won several medals at the annual Salon as well as being awarded First Class Medals at the London Exhibitions of 1855 and 1861. His favorite subjects were horses of which he is considered to be the master at portraying. Next to horses Mene modeled many sculptures of dogs, both at work and at play. He created bronze sculpture ranging from animal portraits, to combat groups, to domestic animals, and equestrian groups of both racing and hunting. It is estimated that he modeled over 150 different subjects during his lifetime and the number of bronze casts produced from these models range well into the thousands.

Mene was a very personable and outgoing individual and by his sheer personality alone he drew the finest craftsmen to work for him in his foundry. His home also became a fashionable meeting place for the painters, sculptors, and musicians of Paris. Pierre Jules Men was truly a man of his art, being just as comfortable entertaining the intellectuals of Paris as he was with his apron on among his foundry workers. His bronzes were widely sold through out Europe and America and he experienced great success in his business. In 1861 Mene was awarded the Cross of the Legion d’Honneur in recognition for his contributions to art. His bronzes, as well as those of his son in law Auguste Cain, were cast with the highest quality, detail, and workmanship, literally setting a new standard that all other foundries tried to meet. Mene cast his works in large editions but took personal care and diligence to make sure that all of the models and casts were kept in perfect condition throughout the edition so that even the last bronze cast in an edition was just as sharp and detailed as the first one that was produced. He did not seek public commissions and he declined many offers to do monuments. Instead he concentrated on his successful business of producing and marketing his very popular bronze sculptures.

After his death in 1877 his foundry was run by his son-in-law Auguste Cain who continued to produce both Mene’s and his own works in the highest standard of quality and continued to submit bronzes in Mene’s name until 1879. Upon the death of Cain in 1892 Mene’s foundry was finally closed and many of his models were sold to the Susse Freres foundry. They published a catalogue of the complete works of P. J. Mene including all of the sizes and subjects. Susse Freres continued to cast and sell Mene’s bronzes into the 20th century, all of them bearing their foundry mark or seal.

Names

The 2,996 Project has signed up over 1,700 blogs so far. I’ve only visited a few dozen of them, but I can tell you that the blogs are an enormously varied group — personal blogs, political blogs, American blogs, foriegn blogs, blogs set up just for this project — just about any kind of blog (or blogger!) you can think of is participating.

But as I look at the list of participating blogs, some of the names just jump out. Some blog names bring a smile all by themselves. Some are a little shocking, touching, or a little risque, or just plain weird. Below are some that just jumped out at me, for whatever reason…

Pondering Penguin

Evil Mommy

Snarkypants

Everybody can Just Bite my Ass

Bona Fide Bunkum

Womb with a View

The 82nd Chairborne Division

MoMmY nEeDsA mAi-tAi !!!

Walking on Alligators

mad-dogs-and-englishmen

Have you seen my Camel?

Katnippia

What Chu Tawkin Bout

Poor Impulse Control

purplefishguts

Tales from Creekistan

Teacher With a Tude

Insane_mom_5

Fish Fear Me

Keep My Soldier Safe

Empty Cerebrations

The June Cleaver Diaries

Used Kitty Litter

Jottings from Jersey

That Loony Yid

In Mommy We Trust (sort of)

Psychedelic Armadillo

All Drains Lead To The Ocean

Viking Humping Witch

the dissident frogman: time to take sides

Accidental CEO

SchnozzFest

The Random Neural Firings of a Free Bohemian

Kudzu and Koolaid

The Insurgent Scrapbooker

A Day In The Night Of A Stripper

This is NOT the Life I pictured

The Plaid Sheep

Hank the Llama

Coalition of the Swilling

Jarhead’s Firing Range

Binary Blonde

Retarded Rugrat

What the hell is wrong with you?

Excess in Moderation

Evil Conservative

Stir Fry Kitty

Mister Priapus' House of Vitriol and Mirth

Life in a Blender

United Possums International

Nukejuggler

Who Would Reagan Vote For?

Taylor Cat House

Go suck a lemon

The Ladies, Goddesses And Bitches Writing Consortium

Wenches Blog

Saturday, August 12, 2006

Be a Sniper

Do you bid on items at eBay? Have you had the frustrating experience of having the highest bid right up to the last second, only to have someone to outbid you — and you have no time to respond?

Chances are that you lost out to an “auction sniper” — someone using the strategy of making a winning bid at the last possible second. This strategy works particularly well with eBay, where the auctions end at a well-defined time that isn’t changed.

When I first started bidding for items on eBay, this happened to me quite often, until (being slow on the uptake) it finally dawned on me that this wasn’t some bad luck on my part, but an actual strategy others were pursuing. So I started sniping myself, without knowing that this was a strategy with a name and a broad following. And it worked — I started winning more and more auctions, until finally it got to the point where the only time I was losing was when the price was higher than I wanted to pay, or when I got sniped by someone bidding even closer to the auction’s close than I was.

This observation (those really closely bids) got me to wondering if some bidders were using software to do their bidding at precisely the right moment. I could easily imagine how to write such software. So I started googling…and discovered the term “auction sniping” and the wide, wide world of sniping software. There are sniping programs you can buy (some of them quite expensive!), and web sites that will do your sniping for you (for a fee, of course). Being the open source software geek that I am, I wondered if someone might have made a free, open source sniping program — and indeed they have. JBidWatcher is exactly such a program. Best of all — like a lot of open source software — it is a really well-written piece of software, and well-supported. Several magazine reviews called it the best sniper out there.

I also ran into some serious academic papers studying sniping (and validating it as a winning strategy). One of the paper’s authors put it this way:

"Our analysis explicitly shows that the winning strategy is to bid at the last moment as the first attempt rather than incremental bidding from the start."

There’s a good article about the academic studies here, and the papers themselves are here, here, here, and here (all are PDFs; you’ll need the free Adobe Acrobat Reader, which is most likely already installed on your computer, to view them).

So after getting all educated about bidding strategies and sniping software, I downloaded JBidWatcher a couple of weeks ago and started using it for my eBay bidding. It’s got a solid “two thumbs up!” rating from me — I haven’t run into a single flaw, and so far I’ve managed to win every bid I’ve made using it. My favorite feature — which I believe is unique to JBidWatcher — is “multisniping”. This lets you set up an automatic sniping bid on multiple auctions of the same item, even where you only want one of them. JBidWatcher will snipe one after the other until either you win one, or you lost them all. Just last night I won a multisnipe auction, where I lost the first auction but won the second one. These two auctions closed just one minute apart in the middle of my night; I’d never have won either of them without JBidWatcher doing the work for me while I was asleep.

Don’t bid on eBay without it!

Friday, August 11, 2006

Scales Falling?

I note in my morning tour through the lamestream media that there is a sudden burst of editorializing and commentary from the European press (especially the British) that sounds — (gasp) — rational!

One hardly knows what to say after the past three or four years of non-stop, unmitigated America- and Bush-bashing…

Just this morning, I read:

— A British commentator supporting the notion of paying extra attention to young male Arabs (that would be “racial profiling"!) in airport security. He talked about how Europeans have been in a state of denial about the threat of radical Islamic fundamentalism — and how the U.S. is the only place that isn’t! Obviously he isn’t tuned into our moonbats, but that’s ok…

— A French editorial talking about America’s “good example” when it comes to integrating immigrants into society.

— A British commentator praising American patriotism and our willingness to fight for our freedoms, even when those wars are overseas. He spoke disparagingly of the European tendency to see Americans as “primitive” and “unsophisticated", saying that in reality it was they (the Europeans) who were being unsophisticated as they pretended that terrorism wasn’t predominantly carried out by Islamic fascists.

What’s that I hear? I think it’s the sound of pigs flying. Yes, yes — a whole flock of them just flew over my house!

The Choice

Every parent wants to know about their childrens' career plans. But sometimes it might be better not knowing:

An old country preacher had a teenage son and it was getting time for the boy to give some thought to choosing a profession. Like many young men, the boy didn’t really know what he wanted to do, and he didn’t seem too concerned about it.

One day, while the boy was away at school, the father decided to try an experiment. He went into the boy’s room and placed on his study table three objects: a Bible, a silver dollar and a bottle of whiskey.

"I’ll just hide behind the door,” the old preacher said to himself, “and when he comes home from school this afternoon, I’ll see which object he picks up. If it’s the Bible, he’s going to be a preacher like me, and what a blessing that would be! If he picks up the dollar, he’s going to be a businessman, and that would be okay, too . But if he picks up the bottle, he’s going to be a no-good drunkard, and, Lord, what a shame that would be."

The old man waited anxiously, and soon heard his son’s footsteps as he entered the house whistling and headed for his room. He tossed his books on the bed, and as he turned to leave the room he spotted the objects on the table. With curiosity in his eyes, he walked over to inspect them.

Finally, he picked up the Bible and placed it under his arm. He picked up the silver dollar and dropped it into his pocket. He uncorked the bottle and took a big drink.

"Lord have mercy,” the old man whispered. “He’s gonna be a Politician!"

Did a few real politicians come right to mind as you read the punch line? Sure did for me…

Tip o’the hat to TonyL for this one…

Thursday, August 10, 2006

HPWREN

Unbeknownst to me, UCSD and USD have been collaborating on a project called High Performance Wireless Research and Education Network (or HPWREN) for a while now. HPWREN has several interesting capabilities, some of which were put to good use during the recent Horse Fire. That last link has some terrific “movies” made from still pictures taken at intervals of a couple of minutes, showing the progress of the Horse Fire.

But the most interesting discovery for me is that HPWREN has several near-realtime web cameras (they update every two minutes) mounted on good vantage points around the county — and one of them is just a couple miles south of me, on Lyons Peak. This camera is actually four cameras in one, with each camera centered on a compass cardinal point and viewing a quadrant. The pictures at right I captured just before posting this; they show north and east views. My home is out of sight, just right of center in the left hand photo. The bulk of the Horse Fire was between Barrett Lake and Lake Morena, nearly dead-center in the right hand photo. These two cameras in particular would have been very useful (and in hindsight, very comforting) during the Horse Fire.

I’ve written to the folks at HPWREN to see if there may be ways we can collaborate to make JamulBlog an even better wildfire resource for Jamulians. I’ll let you know what they have to say…

Tip of the hat to “atr” for this excellent information!

Quote of the Day

Jeff Goldstein, in a post on his excellent blog Protein Wisdom:

"Christ. These people are children. And to think — they might be controlling the Democratic party one day soon?"

Jeff is talking about the moonbat blogosphere’s reaction to the UK airliner terror plot thwarted this morning. Lest you think he is exaggerating, consider this: today’s poll at the DailyKos (ground zero for moonbat blogs) has 71% of respondents declaring “The thwarted U.K. plot was more drama from BushCo to keep us all afraid.” and only 28% believing it was “legit”.

Lest you think that poll is some kind of anomaly, consider these comments on an open thread at DailyKos:

Last night, Fund gave us a peak at the coming Republican strategy that’s based on fear when he said that if Iran threatens the U.S., all voters will rush to the President’s side. Since they abandoned the terror alerts, now they have Chertoff declaring that nobody can carry anything in a bottle onto an airplane. On CBS radio in NYC they said that they’re even confiscating makeup and eyeliner. The more Mr. Chertoff declares that the London plan was “advanced,” the more I believe the opposite. Maybe I’m wrong, but that’s what happens when you lie about something as serious as war, and that’s what happens when you choose an accomplice of Ken Star for Homeland Security. Joe Lieberman loves Mr. Chertoff almost as much as he loves Karl Rove and George W. Bush.

— — — —

Just when the WH begins to charge Dems are “soft on terror", Georgie’s buddy Blair, finds 17 (?) poor suckers to arrest on yet another “developing” terror plot? I really hate having to distrust my government so..

— — — —

I won’t even buy the “terrorist plot” story unless they can turn up some actual bombs or at least some bomb fixin’s.

My first thought when I head the news headlines was “if the plot was 'foiled' why the panic-stricken mess at the airports?” You have to look further into the story to find out that they don’t really know if they’ve “foiled” anything. Which makes Karl Rove smile because he knows most of the sheep will just remember the “plot foiled” part.

— — — —

Thank you Scotland Yard, MI-5, and for any other Intelligence/Law enforcement agency for foiling this plot (including the CIA/FBI if they were involved).

If they didn’t the Bush Administration would have an excuse to start a war with Iran/Syria/whoever is the “enemy” at the moment.

— — — —

Oops, started already. In Chertoff’s press conference this AM someone (not MC apparently) had to throw out the “they-hate-us-because-they-hate-our-freedom” line. I’m sure this whole plot was ginned up because they realized that Lamont was surging in the polls.

There are many more of the same ilk — go read them if you have a strong stomach.

I don’t know whether to laugh or cry.

So I despair…