Horse Fire XVI

The map at right shows the satellite data (both WF-HMS and MODIS) overlayed with the Horse Fire’s perimeter (determined after the fact by human survey teams). It’s very interesting to see how they differ…

The east and west flanks of the fire both have particularly misleading satellite information — they show the fire extending well beyond where it actually was. On the western flank (the one nearest us), there are a couple of satellite paints and WF-HMS data (analyzed by a human) that show the fire extending toward us more than a mile further than it actually did.

On the northeast section of the fire, on the other hand, there are large areas that did burn for which there is no satellite data at all.

The biggest lesson I’ve learned from this experience is that the satellite data simply can’t be relied on. No matter how carefully I qualified the data (e.g., by how far away the satellite passed over), and even relying on the expertise of the NOAA analysts, the satellite data simply didn’t give us accurate information. And depending on the vagaries of the satellite’s orbits, it wasn’t always timely, either. I think the information we got by watching the smoke plumes from our yard was about as accurate and timely as the satellite data — and maybe even more so. The satellite data is just an indicator, and needs to be thought of in that way.

All the more reason to be happy that I’ve got the scanner…