Future of Iran

From Big Pharaoh (a new blog to me!), courtesy of TigerHawk, some commentary on the recent conservative win in Iran:

Now, ever since the youth of Iran brought Khatami to power, apathy started to contaminate the political veins of those youth who are the only ones capable of bringing the regime down. The youth were busy enjoying the few freedoms that Khatami brought (nail polish, pop music, lax dress codes, etc) and they were busy searching for jobs and getting stoned on mountains around Tehran. The protests of the late 90s seemed to be something of the past. I am hoping that AJ and his radical way of governing will shake the people up again...

I know that what I am saying sounds cruel and inhumane. In fact, who am I to say that the Iranian people have to endure the rule of a hardliner so that they might rise up and usher in another people revolution? However, I just cannot help but think that way even though I know that I would have voted for Rafsanjani to avoid an AJ term if I were an Iranian. Let us hope that... we'll see this one good thing in Ahmadinejad's Iran.

Big Pharaoh's post also includes a pointer to this article, which basically says that Iranian exiles agree with his assessment.

TigerHawk isn't nearly as optimistic; he thinks the conservative win signals the end of gradual (and improving) change. I'm sure TigerHawk is right about the end of gradual change, but I sure hope he's wrong (and Big Pharaoh is right) about the impact of this election on the probability of near-term revolution in Iran. I'm reminded, ever-so-slightly, of the history of the United States: it was a series of "conservative" moves by the British to clamp down on the upstart Americans the was the immediate provocation for the American Revolution. I'd like to believe that something similar may result in Iran...

Update: This is what I get for posting before I've completed my morning reading — I missed this post by Arthur Chrenkoff on the same topic (his conclusion):

Rafsanjani's ambitious plan could not compete, however, with Ahmadinejad's cure-all: increase pensions, raise health insurance, offer farmers interest-free loans, and push up minimum wages - that is, handouts for all. Now watch the mullah-approved brave economic program raise millions out of poverty and revive Iran's stagnating economy.

Iran's economy, already in bad shape, is heading for a meltdown under Ahmadinejad's theo-socialism. The poor might have given him the edge this time, but how happy are they going to be when the promised economic sunshine proves to be a mirage?

Sounds like he's on the same wavelength as Big Pharaoh and I...